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LeanFIRE and Goal Oriented Investing: 10 Mistakes you should avoid

Dear All -
After my earlier post regarding COVID-19 and 10 rules to deploy savings that generated lots of questions and interest I would like to share my thoughts about Goal Oriented Investing. While it's a 101 it may nevertheless be helpful to highlight especially in this market environment. I wasn't able to put graphs and videos here so you may find the full version here. Looking forward to hearing your feedback.

1. Not clearly defining your goals. Define your objectives and think in terms of sub-portfolios

Define your short and long term goals. Allocate to asset classes based on your time horizon (e.g. short term goals need to be carefully managed with a defensive portfolio since the short term volatility of high risk assets like stocks can hurt you). Be sure to have a reserve fund of liquid short-term investments and cash so you can cover emergencies and upcoming large expenses without having to sell your investments during down markets.

2. Not being patient and overreacting. Good things come to those who wait

Returns tend to smooth out over the long term. There is a myth about a Fidelity study that analysed all its performing accounts and realised that best performance came out of portfolios of people who either forgot about their accounts or were dead. You can understand why people believe these findings although the study never took place (look at the chart here - 1 to 20 year rolling performance again!). Logging into your brokepension plan account every day may not be helpful. You may tend to react – do not rush investment decisions.

3. Oveunderestimating your risk tolerance

Take a risk tolerance assessment if necessary to understand your risk profile. Your risk tolerance is important to tweak the asset allocation of your goal sub-portfolio. It is determined by: the degree of flexibility you have with regard to your financial goal, and your personal comfort level with volatility in your portfolio.

4. Aiming at influencing things outside of your control. Focus of what’s in your control

This is the Stoic part of the 10 recommendations (if you also happen to adhere to this philosophy get the Stoic newsletter I never stopped reading for the past 5 years). One of the eye-openers that you learn while studying for the gruelling (Chartered Financial Analyst ‘CFA’) Charter is that research estimates that asset allocation (not stock selection!) drives up to c. 90% of overall portfolio performance. You control asset allocation and rebalancing. You do control your spending and savings that will grow over time – don’t waste most of your time on researching individual stocks (read: Are you more qualified than a professional analyst).

5. Not acquiring enough education and taking excessive idiosyncratic risks

Some of the most trending Google searches during this COVID-19 pandemic include ‘best stocks to buy now’, ‘how to invest in oil stocks’, ‘best stock for 2020’ or ‘best investments for 2020’ etc. In fact the phrase ‘how to buy a stock’ surged to record highs. This also relates to FOMO which I have described here and chasing upward trends in a bear market. Acquiring Investment Knowledge is key as it is ultimately your decisions that will determine whether your hard-earned savings generate long term returns. Do your homework. Understand investment risks. Research fundamentals. Take a bit more time if needed – the market is efficient and is pricing in information relatively quickly – you have no edge in acting quickly.

6. Being overly conservative over the long run

Think of your goals as liabilities that you need to match with your investments. The power of compounding means that you need a much lower amount today to meet a higher amount expenditure in the future. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it. If you have high needs with long time horizon you need to take calculated risks. Invest too defensively (e.g. low allocation to Equities) and it may not match your long term objective. Buffett’s exceptional investment returns are also due to his time horizon.

7. Holding excessive cash. Not taking risks involves high opportunity costs

Believe it or not but a lot of bankers working for the top names tend to hold cash and under-invest. By holding cash you are not only missing out on compounding interest but also paying more taxes! Inflation is an indirect tax that works by destroying savings in exchange for gov’t financing. It gets worse – as central banks print an unprecedented amount of money – most standard measurements of inflation, such as the consumer price index (CPI), do not account for the disproportional effects of quantitative easing which is rising asset prices (monetary inflation). Even when you hear about deflation it’s often very misleading. This bear market may be a good opportunity to gradually deploy cash for long term returns if you haven’t already.
As an example – the ‘headline’ inflation in the UK (2.9%) that over 10 years increased prices by 29.29% vs. London Property Prices that increased over twice as much. The same applies to other real assets, like company valuations (stocks) or gold.

8. Not considering diversification

Yes, bonds are not as sexy as stocks since your returns may not be as spectacular in the short term but these are excellent diversifiers that may be sometimes better suited depending on your investment objective and time horizon. Other currencies or hard metals/BTC may be good as well. As an example YTD performance (as of March 9th when I did the analysis) was -14.2% for stocks, +6.1% for bonds and +10.7% for Gold.

9. Letting your emotions rule

This is difficult to implement since we tend to have emotional biases. If you do decide to have a small part of your goal-oriented strategic asset allocation dedicated to tactical asset allocation, sector or stock selection emotions could drive investment decisions based on loss aversion or overconfidence (e.g. confusing brains with a bull market). If it’s e.g. the latter try to stay humble/rational and ask yourself if you really have an edge before making a decision.

10. Forgetting to rebalance

Some advisors recommend that investors rebalance their portfolios on a regular time interval while others recommend rebalancing only when the relative weight of an asset class deviates from the target allocation (glide path investments). Either way, this is something that needs to be observed on a regular basis. I aim to discuss glide path investments in future posts.
With all charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/how-do-i-start-investing-start-learning-how-to-invest-in-stocks-and-bonds-by-avoiding-these-10-common-investing-mistakes/
Stay well!
submitted by bankeronwheels to leanfire [link] [comments]

GOAL-ORIENTED Investing: 10 Mistakes you should avoid

"Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it"- Albert Einstein
[As first seen on: https://bankeronwheels.com/]

1. Not clearly defining your goals. Define your objectives and think in terms of sub-portfolios

Define your short and long term goals. Allocate to asset classes based on your time horizon (e.g. short term goals need to be carefully managed with a defensive portfolio since the short term volatility of high risk assets like stocks can hurt you). Be sure to have a reserve fund of liquid short-term investments and cash so you can cover emergencies and upcoming large expenses without having to sell your investments during down markets, as illustrated below:

2. Not being patient and overreacting. Good things come to those who wait

Returns tend to smooth out over the long term. There is a myth about a Fidelity study that analysed all its performing accounts and realised that best performance came out of portfolios of people who either forgot about their accounts or were dead. You can understand why people believe these findings although the study never took place (look at the above chart’s 1 to 20 year rolling performance again!). Logging into your brokepension plan account every day may not be helpful. You may tend to react – do not rush investment decisions.

3. Oveunderestimating your risk tolerance

Take a risk tolerance assessment if necessary to understand your risk profile. Your risk tolerance is important to tweak the asset allocation of your goal sub-portfolio. It is determined by: the degree of flexibility you have with regard to your financial goal, and your personal comfort level with volatility in your portfolio.

4. Aiming at influencing things outside of your control. Focus of what’s in your control

This is the Stoic part of the 10 recommendations (if you also happen to adhere to this philosophy get the newsletter I never stopped reading for the past 5 years). One of the eye-openers that you learn while studying for the gruelling (Chartered Financial Analyst ‘CFA’) Charter is that research estimates that asset allocation (not stock selection!) drives up to c. 90% of overall portfolio performance. You control asset allocation and rebalancing. You do control your spending and savings that will grow over time – don’t waste most of your time on researching individual stocks (read: Are you more qualified than a professional analyst?)

5. Not acquiring enough education and taking excessive idiosyncratic risks

Some of the most trending Google searches during this COVID-19 pandemic include ‘best stocks to buy now’, ‘how to invest in oil stocks’, ‘best stock for 2020’ or ‘best investments for 2020’ etc. In fact the phrase ‘how to buy a stock’ surged to record highs. This also relates to FOMO which I have described here and chasing upward trends in a bear market. Acquiring Investment Knowledge is key as it is ultimately your decisions that will determine whether your hard-earned savings generate long term returns. Do your homework. Understand investment risks. Research fundamentals. Take a bit more time if needed – the market is efficient and is pricing in information relatively quickly – you have no edge in acting quickly.

6. Being overly conservative over the long run

Think of your goals as liabilities that you need to match with your investments. The power of compounding means that you need a much lower amount today to meet a higher amount expenditure in the future. Einstein said compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it. If you have high needs with long time horizon you need to take calculated risks. Invest too defensively (e.g. low allocation to Equities) and it may not match your long term objective. Buffett’s exceptional investment returns are also due to his time horizon.

7. Holding excessive cash. Not taking risks involves high opportunity costs

Believe it or not but a lot of bankers tend to hold cash and under-invest. By holding cash you are not only missing out on compounding interest but also paying more taxes! Inflation is an indirect tax that works by destroying savings in exchange for gov’t financing. It gets worse – as central banks print an unprecedented amount of money – most standard measurements of inflation, such as the consumer price index (CPI), do not account for the disproportional effects of quantitative easing which is rising asset prices! Even when you hear about deflation it’s often misleading. This bear market may be a good opportunity to gradually deploy cash for long term returns if you haven’t already.
As an example, look below at the ‘headline’ inflation in the UK (2.9%) that over 10 years increased prices by 29.29% vs. London Property Prices that increased over twice as much!

8. Not considering diversification

Yes, bonds are not as sexy as stocks since your returns may not be as spectacular in the short term but these are excellent diversifiers that may be sometimes better suited depending on your investment objective and time horizon. Other currencies or hard metals/BTC may be good as well.

9. Letting your emotions rule

This is difficult to implement since we tend to have emotional biases. If you do decide to have a small part of your goal-oriented strategic asset allocation dedicated to tactical asset allocation, sector or stock selection emotions could drive investment decisions based on loss aversion or overconfidence (e.g. confusing brains with a bull market). If it’s e.g. the latter try to stay humble/rational and ask yourself if you really have an edge before making a decision.

10. Forgetting to rebalance

Some advisors recommend that investors rebalance their portfolios on a regular time interval while others recommend rebalancing only when the relative weight of an asset class deviates from the target allocation (glide path investments). Either way, this is something that needs to be observed on a regular basis. We will discuss glide path investments in future posts. Subscribe here to get notified.
[With charts and videos: https://bankeronwheels.com/how-do-i-start-investing-start-learning-how-to-invest-in-stocks-and-bonds-by-avoiding-these-10-common-investing-mistakes/ ]

submitted by bankeronwheels to InvestmentEducation [link] [comments]

My wife (32F) is threatening to leave me if I (30M) don't get what she considers help for my depression. This isn't the first time she has threatened to leave me.

This is going to be a long post.
I met my wife online 8 years ago. We lived across the country from each other and kept a long distance relationship going well, and go the opportunity to see each other every few months for weeks at a time. We would fall asleep on Skype together every night, text each other throughout the day, and phone each other when we had time to talk or wanted to play games together. In 2013 after a year and a half of dating I asked her to marry me and she said yes.
I was overjoyed! I had spent my highschool years as the guy that everyone avoided because my mother had been sending me to therapy for over 10 years for issues that may have been real at the time of my childhood, but regressed as I grew into adulthood. I would routinely take a cocktail of 8 different medications in the morning and before bed, and my friends are the time would better describe me as a zombie over a functional human being. I had issues holding conversation, would regularly space out, could not perform sexually, and could not get good grades in college. After I got married to my wife, we got an apartment together, and I stopped my medication cold turkey of my own volition.
I was a new man, I no longer any of my previous issues and I felt free and full of life. I never resented my mother because she only had my best interests in mind, and was not doing sending me to therapy and keeping me medicated for her own peace of mind. My parents gave me a great life growing up and gave me everything I ever wanted, being from an upper class household, they bought me a brand new car for college, anything I wanted growing up, and would support me financially on almost anything I wanted within reason. My college was fully paid for and I went to one of the best private schools in the area while growing up. I had been to every continent in the world, visited tons of grand architecture and theme parks, and seen so many wonderful things, and I was looking forward to sharing that life with my new wife.
My wife did not have the upbringing I did. She was the second oldest of 6 children. Growing up, she did not get any luxury. From having to work a summer job to buy her own school supplies and clothes, to dealing with an elder brother that sexually assaulted her every month while her parents slept, to a junkie father that would work odd jobs only to get money to get high, and a mother that worked 3 jobs to keep a roof over her children's head, her child hood was not easy. Her parents got divorced when she was 17, after being together for 23 years. Her father never gave her any love despite her efforts, she would regularly make love notes and lunches for him growing up, only to find them crumpled up and thrown in the trash and never responded to. Her elder brother would force her to give him oral at least a few times a month from the age of 15-16 while everyone in the house was asleep. Her father left and had no contact with her since she was 19, only showing back up in her life for our wedding, just to disappear again. He hasn't spoken to her in 4 years now.
Before we got married, I flew out to meet her, and we packed up everything she owned and put it in her car. We drove 2900 miles across the US to move her into our house with my parents, and after we got married, my parents paid for us to get an apartment near their house. We were so happy! After we moved in together after getting married, we both were young, only 23 and 25. We worked fast food and don't have a lot of money, surviving on only a hundred dollars of food a month. But, because we were together, everything was ok.
Or so I thought. My wife has constantly struggled with insecurity since we got married. We made sure when we got married that we would keep our finances separate. She was a bad money manager and didn't want to "ruin me" like she had ruined herself. She would break down sometimes for no reason begging me not to leave her, and I have never done anything to make it seem like I was. My parents decided that since I had gotten married and was doing OK, they were going to give me part of my inheritance up front. I took this money to pay off all our debt, I paid off half her student loans, and I would take care of any issues that came up for her that she couldn't handle without complaint. She crashed her car, I helped her buy a new one, she couldn't pay a bill, no problem, I've got her covered. Anything she felt she couldn't handle, I was always right there to support her.
Near the end of our first year together, my wife for some reason had reached the end of her rope. If we didn't move out of the big city where she didn't have any friends or know how to get anywhere, she was going to leave me. It wasn't me, but she said was devastatingly homesick, and said she couldn't live here any longer. She had made a real home away from her parents at her college town, and her best friend of 6 years lived there, who had supported her through thick and thin. Despite my aversion to this at first, I could tell that moving back home where her best friend lived and what was familiar to her was important. After 2 weeks of talking about it, I agreed to move with her back to what she considered home. My parents were planning to move around this time as well, as they no longer had any children and we're looking to downsize their home. So, for her, I left my hometown of 25 years, and all my friends that I grew up with.
My parents gave me money for us to buy our first house, and another 30 thousand on top. My wife and I found a nice 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom single family home, and bought it outright with cash. Because there was money left over, we used that for moving costs, and I began searching for a job I knew I would enjoy, while living off the interest on my savings. We were working on having a child and I knew that a kid was going to be expensive, so I was trying to make sure we had the money to support our child, and I could still make my wife happy.
In 2015, 2 years after we moved into our house, my wife said she was going to leave me again. Despite her only ever needing to pay her bills (she had gotten herself into more credit card debt), despite her crashing another car and me paying a $5,000 down payment to buy her another new one (she had to get a loan out), despite me spending time with her every night and never going anywhere without her, taking her on trips and little date nights to make her happy, she was threatening to leave again. A month after her telling me this, my father passed away from early onset Alzheimer's. I was having a rough few months.
We were having trouble conceiving and she was having severe body confidence issues. She was convinced that before I left her for someone else, she was going to have to leave me. Since we had gotten married, she had gained over 100 pounds, and I had never made an issue about it, other than showing concern for her health (her family has a history of diabetes and heart disease). She said that despite me continuing to support her in all her hobbies (she likes dancing and volunteering at the pet shelter), me not having a job was stressing her out because she wasn't sure that I could keep helping her. Despite my reassurances, she believed that I was going to leave her for someone better, and that she needed to leave before I did. No re-assurance I gave her would stop her from believing that I was going to be gone the next time she came home from work.
She started self harming. When she was younger, she frequently thought that the reason that her mother was never around, her father left, her brother abused her, was all her fault. Hurting herself made her feel like she was being punished, and that her sins were being forgiven. Her church growing up was very abusive. They would make people stand up in front of the entire congregation and "confess" their sins in front of everyone. When she had premarital sex with her first boyfriend, she almost killed herself after when her mother found out and made her "confess" to the congregation. She hospitalized herself with a suicide attempt after this happened, and has never respected her mother since.
I called up our PCP and told her that my wife dseperately needed help. After an appointment, blood work, and a CT scan for the issues with concieving, she was diagnosed with Severe Depression, Insulin Resistance, and PCOS. She was put on medication and around this time I had found a job, so I told her that she could cut back on her hours and I would start helping her with her bills. We also started looking for a therapist for her. She started going to the therapist and she seemed a lot happier. We were having fun with friends again, and she felt like the happy, bubbly woman I married again.
In early 2016, we got great news! We were pregnant! Because I was making enough money at the time to pay her bills and mine, she was able to only work 20 hours a week through her pregnancy, and then her job gave her 6 months leave when the baby was due. While she was a few months along, she unfortunately got into another car accident, and so again, I helped her buy a new care, this time a minivan, because she wanted it for our kids. She was going to pay for it again, because she said she was tired of me paying for everything for her again. I have no issues with this as I never have, because whenever I try to pay for something, she doesn't let me.
When we had our child, I had saved up enough money to start my own business. Using the money I had saved, I started up a computer system building company, and servicing the local area, I was able to be home a lot more than working my job, and still make the same amount of money. The business started doing extremely well, and I hired a few employees and a friend of mine to work for me, letting me spend more time with my wife and newborn daughter.
Then, we started having problems again. My wife was in a lot of credit card debt from not managing her money ($30,000), and she had been hiding it from me. She was having issues breastfeeding our kid and would break down for hours at a time over not being able to do it. She was diagnosed with post-partum depression and started going to a different therapist. I wasn't making enough money for paying for our insurance, electrical, car payments, taxes and the credit card debt she had built up. I was upset, but it's extremely uncharacteristic for me to get mad about money, because I have always had money. I offered to use our house savings (we were saving up for a bigger house to have more kids) and pay off her debt again. She said no.
She decided she was going work full time again. I helped her get a debt consolidation loan for her cards, and she began working full time while I took care of our daughter.
This was in the beginning of 2017.
Towards the middle of 2017, our life was going great. My business had taken off, and I was making $10,000 dollars profit a month. I had gotten early in on cryptocurrency back in 2013, and was riding high on the bull run from Bitcoin. My company made crypto mining machines due to having a ton of stock from system building, and we were selling those for record amounts. My wife had cut down to part time because I could afford the extra to help her bills, and she could spend more time with me and our daughter. Things couldn't of been better.
Then in 2018, the crypto market crashed. My cryptocurrency that had been worth almost $500k crashed down to $60k of value in the span of a month and a half. I had to start selling it to pay off debt the company had taken on to expand, or else it was going to hurt me more. But I kept holding onto the majority of it.
I kept my business running, but things were winding down because the crypto run was over. We were operating on razor thin margins. In May of 2018, I stopped paying myself while still running the business to make sure I could keep paying my employees. I was still getting a stipend from investments every month in the amount of a few thousand, so I could afford to not pay myself. I was still taking care of my daughter, but my wife had to go back up to full time. I started looking for jobs, figuring with my 2 associates degrees and my master degree, I could get a good job easy.
In the beginning of 2019, I found out my wife had gotten another $25,000 of credit card debt she was hiding from me. She was eating out daily, bringing home for us to eat, and telling me she was making enough money to afford it. She was now up to almost $45,000 of debt, not including her car. I was upset. I told her she can't keep spending money like we have millions. My business wasn't going well, and we needed to cut back our spending so we can get a bigger house to have another kid like she wants. She broke down again.
She admitted she had a money management issue. She locked all her credit cards up in the house safe, and she agreed to only spend money off her debit card.
Then, the trade wars hit. Our stock account took a huge hit, and because I didn't have strong hands, I sold, at a loss of almost $55,000 dollars. Our stock brokerage trading account that had almost 70k of assets was only worth around $15k dollars. I no longer had the money to cover paying off my wife's debt in an emergency.
In April of 2019, we just received our income taxes, due to my losses from last year, and reduced income, we were due back a large amount. I had unfortunately cut down the business to only myself working for it, as the company still had debt that was used a few years ago to expand to pay off. I still have kept the business operating, unable to pay myself for close to a year now, having to sell crypto to cover bills when business wasn't good enough.
The first day of May, I took this money and put it back in the stock market, but due to weak hands again, I lost 60% of it again before the markets rebounded. The trade wars had taken a ton of my wealth again. Our brokerage account was now worth less than $10k, and I withdrew the rest to put it into my checking account.
Over the past 6 months, I've had to sell off all my remaining cryptocurrency. I have none left. I have to continue running my business in it's dilapidated state, only making enough to pay the bills at the end of the month. I have gotten down to my last $5,000 in cash, and my monthly inheritance stipend, barely pays the bills for the house.
All of the money my wife makes goes to paying off her credit card debt, her student loans, and her car payment. When she comes home, she sits down and plays video games while letting our 3 year old run wild and destroy the house while I sleep. We are trying to potty train, but that's not going well, and when I'm sleeping, our daughter will routinely use the bathroom on the floor then smear it on the walls. My wife will not always notice, and I will wake up having to clean up shit off the walls.
I have been breaking down nonstop. I cannot handle the level of stress I have been having. I have interviewed for 12 jobs in the past 6 months, and not gotten hired. I have applied to over 30. I have lost over $100k of our savings in the past year alone. I never get to see my wife because when she is working, I have to take care of our daughter, and when she gets home, I have to sleep so I can make sure I'm able to work while they are sleeping, because I am unable to work while they're both awake. I make it a priority to make sure I spend a few hours with my wife and daughter a day, so they have time with me.
My wife has not been a responsible adult for months now. She doesn't do her small part of the chores, which is simply do the laundry every week. Every week I take out the trash, clean up the yard, do all the dishes, cook dinner daily, vacuum the house daily, clean up my daughters shit and piss off the floor daily, clean up the mess that my daughter makes when she's playing. We recently found out my daughter is going to need speech therapy. Our house looks like a disaster zone. Our PCP said the speech therapist will come to our house to make it a more "secure environment" for our daughter to get help in. I'm terrified that we're going to get social services called for the state of our house and lose our daughter, but I physically cannot keep up with keeping it clean by myself, because every time I clean something, something else gets destroyed because my wife doesn't watch our daughter.
My wife will throw trash on the floor in the house. She won't pick up dishes. She won't clean up the toys or help our daughter do that when I'm sleeping. There is shit caked on the wall in the nursery because almost every day I can't find it all and clean it all up when my daughter is awake.
I cracked. I cursed at her for the first time in my life. She broke down, she said she's been so stressed and she's trying. I understand how it is to be stressed, I'm stressed too, but I said we need to try harder for our daughter. I told her I don't want to lose her.
Then 2 weeks ago, a text sent late. I'm sure everyone heard about the Verizon bug where texts got send late. You can read about it https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/7/20953422/text-messages-delayed-received-overnight-valentines-day-delay
I had an old text get sent that said "Do you still need me?"
My wife thought I was going to commit suicide.
She said that if I don't get help she's going to leave me and take our daughter with her. She didn't believe me when I showed her the text issue. She says I've been having depression issues for months, and that she's been asking me to get help. She said her therapist has been telling her for months that I need to go get help, and that the idea to threaten to leave me was her THERAPIST'S IDEA, because that threat has MOTIVATED ME BEFORE. This made me extremely upset. I tell her the same thing I did every time, unless they are going to give me a well paying job or hand me a million dollars, therapy is not going to help me.
But I need advice. I love my wife. I have no reason to leave her. In the almost 8 years we've been married, I've never told her I was going to leave her. I pointed this out to her, she still says she can't trust me when I tell her that. I told her why am I being punished for her insecurity. I have done nothing but try to give her a great life. Yes, we've been having a hard time with money for the past year, and I've been very frustrated, but all couples have issues throughout their relationships. She says she doesn't want our daughter growing up hearing her daddy talk about suicide and her maybe hear that.
I'm just trying to figure out how to handle this. I have friends telling me I should leave her. I don't see why I should. I love my wife. I would never leave her, and I feel like now she needs help again. She has gotten happier in person or at least it seems so, but her therapist telling her to threaten me to make me take action seems like a flag for her therapist. But she likes her therapist and likely wouldn't listen if I asked her to find a new one. I asked her to get therapy when she was severely depressed because she didn't seem like the woman I fell in love with anymore. Maybe part of her has come back, but the woman I fell in love with wouldn't be so irresponsible with our daughter, and wouldn't ignore her chores like she does.
I just don't know what to do. I'm scheduled to see our PCP in Janurary for depression, but I don't think it's going to go like she expects, and she hasn't set any expectations of what she's expecting me to get out of this. She says I'm not the man she married any more, but of course I'm not when I'm broke and at the end of my rope with trying to find a job. I feel like anyone would be frustrated and upset if they were in the same position as me. Every day I wake up, work for my failing business that doesn't pay me, take care of my toddler while my wife works, and never get to do anything fun with my family because we have no money and no one will hire me.
I just don't know what to do. I don't want to lose my wife. I have sacrificed so much for her. I want to make her happy. I want my daughter to not have a broken family like my wife had and grow up happy. After her threatening to leave me again, it feels like she doesn't need me anymore. It hurts me severely that she can say that so easily after everything I have done for her. I know she is stressed, and I feel like her saying she's going to leave me helps her cope somehow. I'm resenting her still seeing the same therapist, giving her advice on her home life off my wife's singular perspective. I just don't know what to think anymore.
I want to make the people I love happy.
submitted by ThrowRALovemywife to relationship_advice [link] [comments]

My wife is about to ruin me in the divorce. I am planning to liquidate everything and leave the country. Bring me to reality. [United States]

I will keep it short. I am a French citizen living inside the United States on a work permit. I thought I was in love with a woman and stupidly decided to get married. I do not want to make this a relationship post, but she ended up cheating on me multiple times. I am stupid so I have little evidence of this to show a court. We had a big fight when talking about getting divorced and she said she was going to take everything from me! We got married when I was a bit poorer, so I did not get a prenuptial. But now I make six figures as a programmer in California, but I am not worried about that too much. I own a significant portfolio of cryptocurrencies, and when bitcoin price went up in 2017 I told my wife about it. I never sold it, but I told her how much the value was at the time (5 million). If you follow cryptocurrency you probably know that bitcoin is worth half of that today. But in a divorce she will claim the I owe her 2.5 million! Even though the portfolio is worth less than that! Even if I proved the actual value of the cryptocurrency she will still want half, i don't want to give anything to the woman who hurt me so bad. So for this reason I have liquidated my 401K, IRA and bank account and converted all my bitcoin and liquid assets into an untraceable coin called monero. Then i'm going back to France and leaving America forever unfortunately. I am a French citizen, and France will not extradite their own. Once everything is settled, I should have enough to generate my current income through dividend stocks and buy a house in the country or I will live with my grandmother for a little. I will leave a note for my wife just so she doesn’t think I died. My flight leaves in two days in the dead of night. All I will take is my laptop, phone, and private keys to my cryptocurrency. I think I will give my grandmother a good shock when she sees me haha.
The reason I write all this is because I understand I am very emotional right now, and I figure the people on this website are not. I have already made some hard to reverse choices financially, but my main concerns are legal. I understand that my wife will begin divorce proceedings but will I still have a legal requirement to pay her anything? And if i do have to what are the consequences of never paying her as a citizen of France? I fear I may be too deep to be talked down but I will read the comments regardless.
For reference me and my wife are in our late 20s my grandmother is 79.
I am sorry for poor English
Edit:
For those curious. I have consulted French and American lawyers. I will leave as planned tomorrow. I will not leave a note, and i will pay US taxes! I'm going to live with my grandmother for the foreseeable future as I recover emotionally. I am very happy with this decision. I miss France, my family, and i started to be unhappy at my job. Thank you Reddit for the advice!
Edit 2:
I made it back home and the first thing I did was meet my lawyer. We went over multiple legal scenarios and everyone was in my favor. The worst scenario would result in a 10,000 euro fine, but that would be rare. I will go back to using reddit from my normal account now, if anything significant happens I might do an update. But if this is my last edit assume the best!
submitted by vivafrance1789 to legaladvice [link] [comments]

100 Reasons to Buy Bitcoin

  1. Bitcoin is the most censorship resistant money in the world.
  2. You don't have to buy a “whole” bitcoin so don't freak out if you look at the price. You can buy a piece of one no problem.
  3. The Dallas Mavericks accept Bitcoin on their website. You don't trust Mark Cuban. He's the best shark.
  4. Bitcoin is the best performing asset of the last decade (better than S&P500).
  5. Diversify your current portfolio.
  6. It's not illegal in the USA.
  7. You holding just one satoshi slightly limits the supply and can rise the price for everyone else.
  8. [In late 2019] hash rate is the highest it has ever been
  9. Suicide insurance; if Bitcoin rises in price there is no worse feeling than regret.
  10. Some of the smartest people in computer science and cryptography are working on it. Trust nerds.
  11. Look at the all time historical chart. No technical analysis just tell me what you think when you look at it.
  12. Money is a belief system... and I want to believe.
  13. Transparent ledger, no funny business going on it's easy to audit.
  14. Elon Musk appears to be a fan. How's that for an appeal to authority
  15. There is a fixed limit in the number of bitcoins that will exist. 21 million bitcoin, 7 billion people on earth. Do the math.
  16. There are so many examples of governments inflating their currency to the point where it becomes unusable. Read the wikipedia page for Venezuela or Zimbabwe.
  17. Altcoins make sacrifices in either security or centralization. There are altcoins out there that claim to be innovating but just check the scoreboard nothing has flipped Bitcoin in market value or even gotten close.
  18. With technology developing at a rate faster than law, governments and for-profit businesses have the ability to monitor our purchases, location, our habits, and all of this has happened without consent. People made jokes and conspiracy theory, but sometimes conspiracy is real. Most people are good, but there is absolutely evil out there. There are absolutely evil people in positions of power. There are absolutely evil people that work together in positions of power. Does anyone actually believe that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide. Go read about Leslie Wexner. Go read the cypherpunk manifesto.
  19. The upcoming halvening in 2020 will reduce the number of Bitcoin created in each block, making them more scarce, and if history repeats more valuable.
  20. Bitcoin has lower fees than traditional banking.
  21. Gold has the advantage of being a physical thing. But unlike gold you know Bitcoin is not forged, or mixed with another metal, and you can easily break it into tiny pieces and send it over the internet to someone.
  22. Bitcoin could spark new interests maybe you start to read more into economics, computer science, or Brock Pierce.
  23. Bitcoin has survived with no leader, marketing team, public relations, or legal team.
  24. Because Wired magazine said Bitcoin was dead at $2, Forbes said it was dead at $15, NY Times at $208, and CNN at $333.
  25. Just do a cost benefit analysis. What happens if Bitcoin fails and it goes to zero vs. what happens if it succeeds, and becomes world money.
  26. Bitcoin encourages long term thinking, planning, saving. Due to inflation we are punished by holding on to cash. Look up the statistics on the average savings account while we are bombarded with consumerist bullshit like Funko pop heads, Loot crate subscription services, and new syrup flavors for coffee. Currently we are encouraged to spend now, seek immediate gratification, and ignore what we are becoming as Amazon picks out our clothes and toothpaste ships it to the house and we sit and watch streaming services where content is pushed to us and I'm supposed to buy that this garbage is actually “trending”. Our lives have become so comfortable that idiots spend $60 to escape a room and have someone take your picture when you get out. What would our ancestors think.
  27. Maybe you're a day trader looking to use a trading bot in an unregulated market.
  28. Bitcoin has 7 letters in it. Lucky number 7.....
  29. Bitcoin promises to bank the unbanked, and provide services to those not otherwise “qualified” to open a bank account.
  30. It's just cool, don't you want to seem smart to all your friends.
  31. The origin story is so nuts there's going to be a movie or several movies about the early days of Bitcoin. Satoshi Nakamoto remains anonymous to this day. Imagine if the inventor of the cell phone was anonymous.
  32. If you have money to burn, don't buy soda, weed, or some girls private snapchat it's a dead end put it towards Bitcoin and give it to your child in the future.
  33. To avoid getting ripped off by foreign exchange fees just because you were born one place and your friends were born in another place.
  34. Can't live off the grid in your log cabin and still use Mastercard. Bitcoin is one piece of opting out.
  35. If one country adopts BTC as the national currency, it doesn't take much thought to realise that others will follow.
  36. Join a welcoming and unique community. Everyone is super nice because they want your money.
  37. You can stick it to the baby boomers.
  38. You can stick it to the vegans.
  39. You can stick it Roger Ver.
  40. Maybe your IQ is 70 and you'll do whatever CNBC Fast Money recommends.
  41. Maybe a hacker infects your computer, records you doing that thing, and threatens to release the tape if you do not pay them 1.5 Bitcoin.
  42. You're a risk taker looking for some risky investment.
  43. Aliens attack like Independence Day, blow up major cities in major countries, your money is still safe with Bitcoin. As long as there is a some guy, some person, living on an island with a copy of the ledger out there on your'e good. We're all good.
  44. Many proposals to scale the number of transactions, may the best plan win.
  45. One day you might have to use BTC to pay taxes, buy food, and charge your Tesla.
  46. You want to support a political group and remain private.
  47. You can trust math more than you can trust people to set an emission rate.
  48. Government don't know how much you have.
  49. The first response to Bitcoin being published by Hal Finney stated that Bitcoin was positioned to reach million dollar valuation. Hal was the first bull and passed away in 2014, missing a lot #doitforHal.
  50. Baddies can't freeze your money if they mad at you.
  51. The Big Bang Theory mentioned it, maybe you want to be like Sheldon the bazinga guy.
  52. Mid-life crisis.
  53. Be contrarian. In a world where everyone zigs it's sometimes good to zag.
  54. Don't have any hobbies, and you just need a reason to get up in the morning.
  55. Enjoy learning? Bitcoin is a topic where there is so much to learn, and so much development, that it really becomes a never ending journey. For someone who likes learning, it's more productive than speedrunning a video game.
  56. Yolo. You only live once. This isn't a dress rehearsal, if there's something your kind of interested in pursue it. That's true for anything not just Bitcoin. But if you're reading this I'm assuming you're interested.
  57. Bitcoin is not a ponzi scheme. The difference is Bitcoin does not need new people buying in to work, blocks being added will continue even if the community stopped growing.
  58. With religion on the decline maybe you want to join a cult. Crypto twitter is a great echo chamber to meet like minded people.
  59. Satoshi Nakamoto found a way to distribute a global currency in a fair way with the ability to adjust the mining difficulty as we go, it's really incredible. You still need computers and electricity to mine new bitcoin today but it's an extremely fair way for people to earn. There was no premine of Bitcoin. Everyone who has Bitcoin either bought it at what the market said, or they earned it.
  60. No CEO in charge of Bitcoin to make bad decisions or a board of directors that can make changes. The users, an ever growing number, are in charge.
  61. Bitcoin has no days off, it has no workers in charge who can get sick or take a holiday.
  62. Bitcoin has survived 10 years (and more). While there will always be dangers, I'd argue that those first few years it was most vulnerable to fail.
  63. Have some trust in the cypherpunks. Anyone who held and didn't sell bitcoin as it went from pennies to five figures is not looking to get rich. They want to change the world.
  64. Potential president Tulsi Gabbard disclosed owning some.
  65. Digital money is the future, anyone who has tried Venmo can see that. Well Bitcoin is a digitally native asset.
  66. Refugees can use Bitcoin to store their wealth as they flee a failing country.
  67. Bitcoin is an open source project. Anthony Pompliano likes to call it a virus but I like how the author of the Bitcoin Standard describes it. Bitcoin is like a song. As long as one person remembers it you can't destroy a song.
  68. Triple entry accounting. When humans first started recording who owes who what we had single-entry accounting. The king's little brother would keep everything written down, but we had to really trust this guy because he could simply erase a line and that money would be gone. When double-entry accounting started to spread 500 years ago it brought with it massive innovation. Businesses could now form relationships across the ocean as they each kept a record. We did not have innovation again until Satoshi's Bitcoin, where blockchain can be used as the neutral third party to keep record. It might not sound important but blockchain allows us to agree upon an objective reality.
  69. Bitcoin is non-political.
  70. Bitcoin is easy to accept. I mean kind of. It's certainly easier than setting up a bank account.
  71. A sandwich used to cost 10 cents in America, I walk into Subway and they don't even have $5 foot longs anymore. Inflation man..
  72. It's a peaceful protest.
  73. Critics say that mining wastes electricity, but if Bitcoin adoption continues the world will actually be incentivized to produce more renewable energy. There are so many waterfalls and sources of energy in the middle of nowhere right now. People might not see a reason to build a power plant over there now, but in the future it can make business sense. Take that waterfall mine bitcoin, and sell them to the people who can't mine. It allows for a business to sell their energy anywhere.
  74. Get into debates around Bitcoin, build those critical thinking skills.
  75. “Predicting rain doesn't count, building arks does”
  76. “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.”
  77. "I never considered for one second having anything to do with it. I detested it the moment it was raised. It’s just disgusting. Bitcoin is noxious poison.”
  78. The immaculate conception. No cryptocurrency can have a start the grassroots way Bitcoin did, it's just impossible given how the space has changed.
  79. There are more than 1000x more U.S. dollars today than there were a hundred years ago.
  80. Bitcoin is the largest transfer of wealth this decade from the least curious to the curious.
  81. The concept of the Star Wars Cantina, Galt's Gulch, or young Beat Generation kids sitting in a basement smoking cigarettes and questioning the world can only exist if money remains fungible.
  82. You can send money to your Dad even if he lives in a country run by bad boys.
  83. Memorize your key, and walk around the world carrying your money in your head.
  84. Free speech.
  85. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9JGmA5_unYGmA5_unY
  86. The Federal Reserve is objectively way too powerful.
  87. John Mcafe promised that if bitcoins were not valued at 1 million dollars by the end of 2020 he would eat his own penis on national television. It will be a sad day if we don't hit that 1 million.
  88. The Apple credit card.
  89. If we ever get artificial intelligence it'll be able to interact with Bitcoin.
  90. Katy Perry is aware of crypto so if by some chance you run into her, you get one chance to strike up conversation, so here's your chance to shine. You don't ask for a picture, you don't say she's pretty, or name your favorite song. Take your shot and ask about what type of cold storage she uses for her bitcoin.
  91. Many people are afraid of a world currency because it's associated with a centralized world power taking control. Bitcoin allows for neutral world money.
  92. Stick it to Mark Zuckerberg.
  93. Developers developers developers developers developer developers.
  94. About 85% of the supply has already been mined.
  95. Bitcoin can always improve. As long as the proposal is really good the code can be upgraded, and if the baddies invent ways to hurt the chain we can just fork off it's just code.
  96. Memes
  97. Name recognition and momentum above all other cryptocurrencies.
  98. 3% discount with Bitcoin at Crescent Tide Cremation Services. Nice cant wait to die.
  99. Like having a swiss bank account in your pocket.
  100. Blow up the banks (in minecraft).
submitted by Th3M0rn1ng5h0w to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

60 DoD Week 6: Finances

60 DoD Week 6: Finances
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail. – Ben Franklin
Having a financial plan is vitally important for a number of reasons. What do you think the greatest stressor in relationships is? The lack of sex your wife is giving you? Close one. It’s money, although your shaved balls might think otherwise.
So don’t you think having a plan is critical to fixing your well-being? You have a MAP to get in shape. Why don’t you have a plan for your finances.
This post might better well be served in personal finance, but screw it. I’m going to town. For the folks overseas, some of this content might be US-specific.
On Net Worth
In order to calculate your net worth, you need to take your assets, such as your checking account, savings, house, etc, and subtract your liabilities, your mortgage, credit card debts, and loans, and you’ll get your net worth.
This is a good time to be spreadsheet guy. But instead of counting how many ladies you are seeing or counting how many times you had sex, use Excel for its intended purpose.
Start calculating it annually, quarterly, monthly. Whatever frequency you feel like you need to get a handle on where your net worth is going. For myself, I do this quarterly, though I have my finger on the pulse pretty frequently.
On Budget
You want to get ahead? You have to operate on a budget. Know what you are spending, what you are saving, and where your money is going.
For me, I’ve got it set where it takes me about 7 minutes to log into the various accounts, take certain numbers like food spend and so forth, and plug those numbers into the Excel boxes. Plugging them in allows me to quickly project the next three months spend and where I’ll be. Some numbers are easy to find, like the fixed costs of mortgage and student loans. Some numbers you have to estimate or look up, like variable food costs and gas/electric. I do this about once a month. It doesn’t take long at all – just making sure I have good cash flow and sticking to my budget.
Take the time to do a detailed line item comparison. You should know exactly how much is going where. The real key though is STICKING TO YOUR BUDGET. You have to keep to it in order to meet your goals.
On Financial Literacy
It’s key to have a good understanding on financial literacy. You have to understand things such as what is the market, what is a stock, what is a bond, what is a dividend, what is a mutual fund, and so forth. You have to know what you are investing in. Take your financial knowledge and move it up. There are literally tons of free information out there. Start going to town. And for the advanced players, go learn the ins and outs of your brokerage firm’s website and trading platform – I mean really learn it, not just “Oh, here’s how I do a buy order on a stock.” Learn how to screen for stocks, mutual funds, and bonds effectively.
Side note – If you are in the US, I recommend joining AAII. I have gotten a great deal of value out of my membership to them. A number of HNW individuals I know recommended it to me, though I had joined and got the lifetime membership before I met them.
On Bogleheads
Personally, I’m a Boglehead. Jack Bogle, man, he was the Chad of passive investing. I believe that passive investing (indexing) long term beats active investing long term. So does Warren Buffet. All my research agrees with this from a long term standpoint.
I’m also a fan of creating an Investment Policy Statement
Boglehead Resources
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/What_the_experts_say_about_investing
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/The_twelve_pillars_of_wisdom / https://web.archive.org/web/20070304091730/http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/april272001.html
https://studentloanhero.com/featured/bogleheads-invest/
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php
I would highly encourage you to review these links and check out their philosophy on investing.
On Being a Contrarian
I’m also a fan of being a contrarian. Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. You see it with the Bitcoin bubble. You see it when the stock market goes up and down. Oh no, the market is going down… whatever shall we do?!? You stick to your guns. I’m not saying go catch a falling knife. I’m saying that you stick to your plan. There is opportunity when people are fearful, and caution is warranted when people are being greedy. You have to evaluate where we are in the economic cycle as well.
On a Cup of Starbucks and Retirement
You might have seen the example where someone buys a cup of Starbucks every day and then finds out that if they took that money and invested it toward their retirement, over the span of say 30 years they’ll have like an extra 200k. I have two comments on this. First, be frugal, but don’t deny yourself. Don’t let frugality control you. Second, don’t just focus on controlling the little changes like saving a cup of Starbucks every week, focus on the BIG areas. Focus on getting a new job that pays you an extra 40k per year. Focus on saving 100 bucks off your cable (1200 bucks saved per year). Focus on lowering your taxes. What I’m saying is focus on not just the small areas, but also make the bigger impact areas a higher priority. And stop drinking so much Starbucks – make it yourself. Grind the beans, for crying out loud.
On Automating
Automate your finances. Make it EASY for yourself to save money. Set up your automatic bill payments for your credit card, loans, mortgage, and bills. Take advantage of the modern tools nowadays for app/camera based check deposits. Have money taken out of your paycheck before you get it, whether it is for retirement or into a separate savings account, so you can accumulate a rainy day fund. I’ve automated as much as I can, with direct withdrawals taken out for mortgage, credit card payments, gas and electric, and for the other areas like telephone those are automatically paid from the credit card, which then is automatically paid from the checking account. Automating saves time, which is a critical resource.
On Buying a Car
Here’s your resources:
https://www.reddit.com/askcarsales/wiki/index
https://www.reddit.com/askcarsales/comments/19niva/car_buying_faqs/
https://www.reddit.com/askcarsales/comments/4j2okj/what_to_expect_from_your_dealership_visit/
https://www.reddit.com/askcarsales/comments/613jvn/askcarsales_faq_updated_march_2017/
http://fightingchance.com/ - I used these for private market research, and was worth every penny.
There’s a lot more here, but this should get you through the basics. Simply, knowledge is power. The more you know, the more power you have. If you don’t know every single line item that is going into your purchase, whether it is an accessory, taxes, that stupid coating that they try to sell you for $1000 but it’s really just worth $100, etc., then you’re not ready, and you’re more likely to be fleeced.
Just even walking into the dealership and observing other customers and their interactions with the car salesman, it’s like watching sheep. Don’t be a sheep. Be prepared. And be prepared to walk too. Cars are a commodity. You can buy the same car someplace else cheaper. Remember this – cars are a commodity, and there’s lots of dealers out there.
Side note – “But Steel, what about TrueCar? That seems awesome. I’ll just go in, get my TrueCaCostco/KBB/XXX price and I won’t even have to do anything to get a great price.” Let me tell you this. Dealers would be HAPPY to sell you at the TrueCar price all day long. With proper preparation, you can negotiate a far better deal. Last time when preparing, I had a binder. That binder saved me over 9k. Cost me 5 bucks at the local pharmacy. Printed out all my info, was prepared as all get out, and had a prepared offer ready to go (I used my own sheet, not theirs). Be prepared, that’s what I’m saying. And don’t fall for the four square technique. I just chuckled at the different dealerships at how they try to pull that one. Hell, I went through YouTube and viewed a couple of videos on how car salesmen sell, so I had an understanding of their mentality and what they do. Be prepared.
Generally, there are five major parts for buying a car: Trading in your current car, buying your new car, buying options on a car (like that fancy heated steering-wheel), extended warranty, and financing. You should own every single area of this. As an example, when you are talking about trading in your current car, you should ALREADY have your price quote from CarMax in hand, as well as other offers from other dealers. You should know what your car is worth if it were to be sold (remember supply and demand – what is it really worth: what someone will buy it for). You should already have the KBB and Edmunds value of your used car. For your new car, you should have a breakdown of every single thing on it, including options, doc fees and ERT. For your fancy accessories, you should have the MSRP of these accessories, the actual cost of them buying (wholesale parts warehouse), and an estimate in your head on labor costs (cause parts don’t get installed by themselves). For your extended warranty, I would just say that there is a reason why this is one of the most profitable areas of a car dealership. If you simply must have an extended warranty for peace of mind, go find a wholesale warranty. Do your research. Don’t buy from the dealership. Most cars nowadays anyway are built quite well with high standards of quality control, so they’re not failing like they used to. On financing, make sure you set up your own financing before you walk in. It makes life much easier, as the car dealers get money on financing as well. If the dealership can beat your credit union, more power to them. It’s powerful as all get out when you walk in with a prewritten cashier’s check at a super low interest rate and you’re ready when they start asking you how you are going to pay for the car. “Well, I am preapproved for x amount (aka the full amount of the car), but I’d like to see what specials and discounts you have.”
It’s all about how much money you can save in each one of these areas.
Granted if you’re BETA BUCKS and your time is worth more than doing a bit of research, that’s fair. Some folk just walk in and buy a car right there with a minimum of haggling. That’s how much their time is worth to them, and I know a few people who are like this. I’m merely presenting an alternate approach. To me, it was worth the time to save more than a few thousands.
On Buying a House
For many people, a house is the largest purchase that they make in their lifetime. Many of you have already bought houses, so I won’t go into this in detail, but again, from The Millionaire Next Door – “If you’re not yet wealthy, but want to be someday, never purchase a home that requires a mortgage that is more than twice your household’s annual realized income.”
I see a lot of you going “Shit” after reading that.
On a Side Hustle
I didn’t even have to write anything, u/red-sfpplus already wrote an excellent post on this topic - https://www.reddit.com/marriedredpill/comments/7i7x4q/the_financial_hustle/
Learn from his example. And then buy the man a drink.
On What to Do First
"Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant." - Warren Buffett
First of all, take stock of where you are. Figure out your net worth, and what you have and what you owe (and interest rates). I would say the first thing to do is to have a three to six month emergency fund. This can be done in conjunction with getting rid of high interest debt (such as credit card debt), however if and when you have an emergency, you’re going to need to tap into something.
Start your budgeting process. Know where your money is going. Fix it.
Most people don’t even have a thousand dollars in savings. Don’t be like that.
I would also note that the Personal Finance subreddit has this already diagrammed out in a flowchart in their wiki - https://i.imgur.com/lSoUQr2.png
On Giving Back
So you give back, right. Of course you do. But what I suggest is potentially setting up a charitable fund, so that you can maximize your charitable deduction annually. You can give a larger sum one year, and then less/none the following year – and maximize your deduction the first year. Something to consider. Plus then your charitable fund is invested, will grow with the market (remember you need a plan and asset allocation here as well), and the growth can be given to the charity as well, tax free. I’d recommend Vanguard, but really there are a number of places that do this.
On Habits of Millionaires
From the book The Millionaire Next Door, here are the characteristics of millionaires:
• They live well below their means
• They allocate their time, energy, and money efficiently, in ways conducive to building wealth.
• They believe that financial independence is more important than displaying high social status
• Their parents did not provide economic outpatient care.
• Their adult children are economically self-sufficient.
• They are proficient in targeting market opportunities.
• They chose the right occupation.
On Building Wealth
You want to build wealth? Don’t have a high consumption lifestyle! Think for a moment. How much money do you think it takes to maintain an upper-middle class lifestyle vs. how much money do you think it takes to maintain a middle-class/blue collar lifestyle? Bespoke suits. Luxury cars. Bigger house. More property taxes. And so forth. Think of all the stuff you have to purchase to keep up with the Joneses. Cost of cleaning. Cost of buying furniture for that fancy house. Etc.
“But Steel, I don’t care about the Joneses.” Sure you don’t. But your wife does. Watching that HGTV, picking out the stupid pillows that breed like rabbits in your house when you’re not looking. There’s something about a house that factors into the Female Social Matrix.
Frugality is the name of the game. Frugal being “behavior characterized by or reflecting economy in the use of resources.”
Don’t be wasteful. Don’t have a lifestyle marked by lavish spending and hyper consumption. You want to build wealth? Be frugal.
Most people will not become wealthy in one generation if they are married to people who are wasteful. You can’t accumulate wealth if one of you is a hyperconsumer.
On Offence vs. Defense
So you’re not beta bucks, you’re BETA BUCKS! You make it rain! Good for you. You play great offence. But how’s your defense? How’s your wealth accumulation? Are you spending like there’s no tomorrow? If you want to win the game, you have to play great offence AND defense.
Here’s some questions for you:
• Do you operate on an annual budget?
• Do you know how much you spend each year for food, clothing, and shelter?
• Do you have a clearly defined set of daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and lifetime goals?
• Do you spend a lot of time planning your financial future?
To build wealth, minimize your realized (taxable) income, and maximize your unrealized income (wealth/capital appreciation without a cash flow).
How do you become financially independent? You have to plan, and you have to sacrifice. You sacrifice today for financial independence tomorrow.
On Your Wife & Buy-In
As part of your plan and budgeting, once you have it all set, get buy-in from your wife. But do this not like you are seeking approval from mommy (aka you validation whore you), but matter of factly here is the plan, we are budgeting x amount for these areas. Here is our plan. Set out a vision.
On Financial Vision
Read it and weep - https://www.reddit.com/marriedredpill/comments/3fecgi/first_budget_discussion_leads_to_minor_meltdown/ctnya77/
“One rarely talked-about element of Married Game is a subtle thing known as Vision. Most husbands don’t appreciate what a strong DHV possessing Vision is, and they proceed unaware of the power it can add to their relationship. Most husbands do this because they don’t understand Vision, what it is and how it is manifested, much less the subtle but important role it holds. Let me explain: once upon a time I was working for a personnel agency, and one of my jobs was coaching our people on interviewing techniques. I learned a lot about the process as a result, from both the interviewer and the interviewee side. When it came to my clients who wanted high-quality employees with good technical skills – real talent – I learned the sorts of things that such high-demand technical people wanted in a company. Money, of course, and security and benefits. But beyond that gifted employees want to work for a company with a history, a good culture, and (most importantly) a Vision.
What is Vision? In this context Vision is a manifested idea of the future. Everyone wants to work for a company that’s changing the world and is doing so in a positive, pro-active way. No one wants to work for the company that’s floundering, desperate just to meet its next quarter’s goals. Vision is a generally-stated plan-of-action toward a distant but achievable goal, presented in an enticing enough manner to inspire. It’s short on details and long on generalizations. It’s reflective of inner beliefs, values, and judgments, an indication of character, foresight, and initiative. It should be bold, meaningful, and challenging.”
Now, this quote above is excellent. You need a vision for your life, but you also need a vision for your finances. What would your financial vision be? What does it look like to you? Create it, and then be ready to share that with your family.
On Love of Money
Remember folks, money itself is not the root of all evil. It’s the LOVE of money that causes the problem. When you are so driven to be a better beta bucks to get that coin, and start neglecting yourself, your relationships, etc… you’ve got problems. Money is just a tool in the toolbox. Use it, don’t let it use you. Don’t become a slave to money. Your life doesn’t consist of how many toys you have. And you can’t take it with you when you go.
On Insurance, or Lack Thereof
Would it surprise you to know that most people are underinsured? Make sure that you have enough of the key five types of insurance: health, car, homeowners/renters, life, and disability. Preparing yourself for these situations can save you a lot of pain in the future. Also, make sure you get enough umbrella insurance. Typically they say have enough umbrella insurance to cover your net worth, but I recommend getting a bit more.
A quick note, practically, do not get whole life insurance. Get term insurance, and invest the difference in cost between whole life and term. You’ll be much better off. And yes, this is for 99.9% of situations. The remaining .1% of situations are when someone is really wealthy and there are estate and tax considerations. Aka for most of us, don’t worry about it.
And take care of your health, so you don’t get fat when you are older and have related medical problems. Put. The. Fork. Down.
On Assets and Liabilities, Rich Dad Poor Dad Edition
A number of you have read Rich Dad Poor Dad, and there’s controversy in it. I disagree with a number of items in there, but there is an interesting point in there about how he views assets and liabilities:
“You must know the difference between an asset and a liability, and buy assets. If you want to be rich, this is all you need to know. It is Rule No. 1. It is the only rule. This may sound absurdly simple, but most people have no idea how profound this rule is. Most people struggle financially because they do not know the difference between an asset and a liability.”
He has a simple, non-accounting definition - “An asset is something that puts money in my pocket. A liability is something that takes money out of my pocket.”
Buy assets. I like it. What is out there that you can buy that puts money in your pocket. Stocks. Bonds. Mutual Funds. Real Estate that produces Income. There are a ton of items.
You should also think about getting rid of your liabilities… the giant boat, the private jet, the cluster B horrible sex-depriving wife (you know who you are)… you get the idea.
On Disaster Recovery and Information Security
What were to happen if you were to croak, or your only laptop with all your financial data was stolen or destroyed in a fire along with all your financial papers (see, you should have gotten that fireproof safe)? Would you have a plan on what to do? Would your spouse? Your kids? I would suggest making a backup of your finances, statements, tax returns, and other important papers, and put that on an encrypted USB key with a password that you and your wife knows, and then storing that someplace secure. Note that you can do fancy stuff like cloud storage, and so forth – but you need to have a plan for the worst case scenario.
Additionally, make sure that you use two-factor authentication when you log into your banking accounts (if they have it), as well as don’t repeat your passwords for your financial accounts.
I would even suggest having a separate secured email for your banking accounts, and another one for your personal accounts that get those damn spam emails all the time.
Don’t be stupid with your financial accounts. Using the same password is stupid. Yeah, I’m talking to you.
On Practical Advice
Do get rid of high interest credit cards. If you’ve got a balance on your 29.99% APR credit card and are paying that interest every month, it’s in your best interest to eliminate that debt as soon as possible. You’re not going to get a 29.99% return in a month in the stock market (unless you take on excessive risk for that return, obviously). Try to transfer that balance to a promo 0% interest credit card, and work that down.
Don’t borrow from your 401k. You’re cutting out your future returns. Don’t make that 401k loan your emergency fund, but rather have a separate emergency fund.
Do use credit cards over debit cards, for a whole host of reasons (theft being the primary reason).
Do pay yourself first. Take out at least 10% of your paycheck before it hits your checking account, and start saving.
Don’t pay monthly or annual fees on checking accounts or savings accounts. You shouldn’t be paying a bank to store your money. They should be paying you for that privilege.
Do get solid credit cards that give outstanding rewards. Do your research. Get at least 2% cash back if you can. Shoot for 5% or more. For example, Discover allows you to get 5% cash back in certain categories, and then you can redeem $20 for a $25 gift card to a number of different vendors. Looks like you just got a 6.25% return.
There are plenty of other examples. Do you spend a boatload at Amazon? Get your 5% return. As an example – I get a 5% return on gas using a certain credit card. It’s unlimited throughout the year, and is redeemed as a statement credit, so I don’t have to worry about redemption. I have a certain Amex that I redeem at 4.6% points per dollar spent, plus a 2% general cash back card (some places don’t accept Amex). I could go even crazier, like getting the 3% on restaurants, or churning cards (and there are a lot of sites out there on how to churn successfully), but at some point, it’s not worth it.
Do realize that credit cards make it easy to buy things that you don’t need. Recognize that part of yourself that wants to overspend. Ask yourself, do you need whatever it is you are buying. Would it hurt more if you paid in cash rather than credit. Buying with credit encourages you to buy more than you can afford.
Do shop around for loans/services. I asked my bank what the best car loan they could give me – they said 2.99%. I asked my credit union, and they got me 1.49%. That’s a big difference in interest over the course of a loan. Generally due to how credit unions are structured (and their presence – mostly online), they will have better deals on certain loans than banks, depending on the product.
Don’t delay saving for retirement. Generally, you’ll want to be saving 15% or more of your income for retirement early on. If you don’t save early, the harder it will be.
Do try to simplify your finances. It makes it much more complicated if you chase after the best savings rate for your online bank, and then have many accounts all over the place. The 20 dollars that you get in interest is not worth the complexity and time (aka your most valuable resource) it takes to manage all that stuff.
Don’t use your HELOC unless you have to. I have a large HELOC, but I don’t use it. But who knows when I need access to a large sum of money. And don’t use it in lieu of your emergency fund. You need both.
Do some research into budgeting tools. There’s a lot of people on these threads that recommend YNAB. I personally haven’t used it, so I can’t recommend it one way or the other. I’m old school (and cheap thrifty – why would you pay for something if you can do it yourself). But definitely check those tools out – Mint, Personal Capital, YNAB, budgeting tools through your bank, etc. Also, if your credit card does an annual summary (like Amex does), make sure you look at it to get an idea on where you’re spending – it’s very helpful.
On Tips for Saving Money
There are a ton of ways you can save money. Go ahead and google “how can I save 1000”. Wait, I did that for you - https://www.google.com/search?q=how+can+I+save+1000
Take some time, call up your cell phone providecable provider and see what specials they have. There's a ton of things you can do to save money quickly.
On Too Much Money
Say you’re an ostrich farmer, and are flush with cash. You’re asking yourself, ok, so I’ve maxed out my 401k, I’ve maxed out my Traditional IRA and then backdoored it into a Roth IRA for tax diversification plus the benefits of a Roth. I’m contributing to a 529 plan for the kids. I looked into mega backdooring my Roth but darn it my employer doesn’t let me do that. I’m doing all of the tax advantaged things I can. I still have this extra 300k sitting around – what do I do with it?!? First world problems, amIrite. Again, this comes back to your plan. What’s the short term plan with this money. What’s the long term plan. What’s your risk tolerance. What assets can you invest in that fit in with your plan. You still have to manage your budget, even if you are a 1 percenter.
On the Best Investment and Most Important Resource
I’m a firm believer that the best investment is investing in yourself (and your family and kids), and your most important resource is not money, but time. Learn a skill. Go get a degree. Give your kids a head start. Help your wife accomplish a goal. Do what you can to save time. Money of course helps, but you know what happens when you teach a man to fish.
On Happiness
Is money linked to happiness? Yes, but only to a point - https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2018/02/26/does-money-equal-happiness-does-until-you-earn-much/374119002/ and https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2016/12/09/key-money-happiness-may-how-you-spend/94308848/
Honestly, at some point, money just becomes a scoreboard. Money will give you security. It will remove a stressor in your life. It will remove fighting and stress in your relationship (about money, fool). It will allow you to do many things. But eventually, money won’t give you happiness. You have to figure that one out yourself. And of course there’s the joke about “Money can’t buy you happiness, but it can buy you a yacht big enough to pull up right alongside it.” – David Lee Roth.
On Money and Attraction
Money by itself will not make your wife’s panties wet. Keep that in mind. Having and getting money is basic adulting. Same with saving and managing it. You want to get her wet? Get in shape. Lift. Does money boost your status? Sure. Is status one of those areas that has some effect on where you are in the sexual marketplace? Sure. Pure physical attraction? No. Do you really think that making MORE money is going to have your wife give you more sex? Of course not - https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/money-wont-save-beta-males/
Get in shape. Be hawt. And fix your damn teeth so you can smile like you are a somebody.
On a Brief Story
So I was talking to a friend of mine, and I asked him how he and his wife set up the finances. He told me about this system, where his paycheck goes into his checking, his wife’s paycheck goes into his wife’s checking, and they have a joint savings account. Then he went into a convoluted description on how each of them pays certain bills, and how what he’s paying is not fair since he’s paying the mortgage AND property tax AND daycare, etc etc. I thought to myself, man, what a convoluted way to deal with stuff. They would then have multiple financial meetings, and discussion on who pays what, and all this extra stuff. It was just a lack of overall ownership going on.
Just take care of the finances. Figure out a system that works for you. I’m not going to tell you which system is the best, because it’s all dependent on your unique circumstances (example: heavy spender SAHM vs saver career girl, you’ll need to put some deep restrictions on the heavy spender). But own it.
On Who Owns the Finances
You own the finances. Period. End stop. From the prior post on finances, it’s so important that I’m putting it here again:
“At the core: Who do you want in charge of your financial future?
The person interested in maintaining status quo and safety at all costs with your happiness and satisfaction a secondary or minor consideration? Or you?
If you've learned anything here it's that you need to be a captain. Putting your wife in the family alpha role breeds contempt and most of the problems that brought your here. Besides control of sex, family MONEY decision veto power is the key indicator of who is wearing the pants.”
submitted by SteelSharpensSteel to marriedredpill [link] [comments]

Long Response to Scott's Tax Posts

I've been reading the series of posts about these tax cuts and the associated discussion with great interest. I think it has been a very good, civil discussion, and there have been many enlightening viewpoints given. I also think a bunch of the discussion is based on a number of misunderstandings and/or misconceptions held by people on both sides of the debate, our own dear correspondent included. To respond properly to these misconceptions requires a post a bit longer than a traditional comment, hence this post. I hope that this can serve as another contribution to what I feel has been a productive discussion.
 
First off, some background on myself, since I am a newcomer to this forum. I work in finance, so while not being an economist, I am at least economist adjacent. I would self-describe my economics knowledge as roughly in line with someone who graduated from an upper tier college with an undergrad degree in economics, or maybe a first year grad student. (I myself have a Masters in Finance, and seven years work experience in various finance roles under my belt) All this to say that I at least have a working knowledge of most of the relevant theories, and a capacity to examine most underlying assumptions in various plans.
 
Let's also get another point out of the way; I think this particular tax bill, as drafted, is an absolute dog. This article, in the "Fun with Taxes" Section does a decent job of explaining why. In particular, the number of distortions and inefficiencies that this bill creates is at least as large as the number of inefficiencies it removes. The Pass-through income provision strikes me (and the author of the linked article) as particularly egregious, and seems, to me, to be a blatant giveaway to anyone rich and/or savvy enough to take advantage of it, while also creating massive loopholes that it purports to be removing. So, that's out of the way; I'm not going to try to defend this tax bill on its substance, because I think that's a losing battle. However, I am going to try to defend it on its principles. I think the best way to try that is to just walk through our dear correspondent's posts up to this point, and try to correct some of the more glaring issues I see with them.
 
THE TAX BILL COMPARED TO OTHER VERY EXPENSIVE THINGS
 
Before Scott accepts any of the numbers that he used on his chart at face value, I would encourage him to re-read his post, Considerations on Cost Disease. It's laughable to suggest that the U.S. Government could solve homelessness for $23B / year, truly. We spent $70B in 2016 on Food Stamps alone, you seriously think we could end homelessness for 1/3 of that budget? Similarly, Bernie's estimated $47B/ year for free college tuition for all relied on some, ah, dubious assumptions. This is before we even get into the current discussion about whether all that college is even worth it. When Scott says we could fund the Apollo Program nine times over, he conveniently forgets that the cost of the Apollo Program in 2017 dollars was $110B, and that's before we take into account the fact that everything the government does costs 5x as much as it should and no one knows why. Now is also a good time to mention that SpaceX runs on ~$1B per year, providing a bit of perspective on the relative efficiency of government vs free enterprise. Obviously, vast technology gains have been made since the 1970s, but it's pretty reasonable to suggest that a similar operation to SpaceX, but funded by the government, would be at least an order of magnitude more expensive. The numbers quoted for solving world hunger and universal healthcare don't ring particularly true to me either.
 
There are two numbers on there that seem pretty accurate, and unsurprisingly they are also the least inflammatory: the Bush Tax Cuts, and the Obama Stimulus. Incidentally, I, who voted for Obama precisely zero times, thought those stimulus measures were a good, even great, idea. I also think that a hypothetical, actually effective version of this bill would be a good idea. Furthermore, the majority of the complaints about this bill have not been of the form "Why can't we just do the Obama stimulus again? That would be so much more effective than this tax cut!" They have largely been in keeping with the tone Scott adopts here, which is "Why can't we do [thing that the government cannot accomplish], instead? That would be so much better!" Well, yes, solving homelessness for $23B would be better than this tax cut. It would also be nice to give everyone a $25k Universal Basic Income for the same price tag as the tax cut. Unfortunately, reality dictates that we would only be able to pay for a much smaller UBI for the same price. We need to focus on comparing to realistic expectations for the current government, rather than what might be possible if huge efficiency gains were made.
 
RESPONSE TO COMMENTS: THE TAX BILL IS STILL VERY BAD
 
I have less of a problem with the substance of this post, but more of a problem with the underlying assumptions Scott uses to arrive at his arguments. Again, let's reiterate that I think the bill is poorly drafted, and that I even think the alternative Scott suggested would be better than the current bill. Unfortunately, that's not so much a ringing endorsement of Scott's plan as it is a repudiation of the many problems with this bill. Part of the response was going to be essentially point 1 and 2 that Scott acknowledges at the beginning of his next post, so I won't elaborate on that any further than to say that the current regime of corporate taxation in America is extremely inefficient, and any plan that improves that state of affairs is a definite positive. There's a number of other points that I think are worth expounding upon however.
 
Scott points out the disconnect between economic growth and the fortunes of the majority of people in the last few decades. He's right, there definitely is something at work that is causing the most productive people to accrue the lion's share of economic gains in recent history. I think that topic is hugely complex, and it's clear that tax policy is, at best, a mere subset of the many causes of the phenomenon. (For my two cents, I think the two biggest causes are increased globalization, and increased scalability of new technology. Henry Ford was limited by how many cars he could produce, and largely by the American market. Mark Zuckerberg has no such limits on either front. I also think both globalization and scalable technology are net positive forces that have the drawback of exacerbating inequality.) I am not the artist that Scott is when it comes to medical related similies, but curbing inequality through tax policy seems to me like treating cancer with morphine. It may make you feel better, but you aren't addressing the underlying condition.
 
Scott then performs a surprisingly strong worded and vitriolic diatribe for someone who admits a layman's understanding of the issue at hand. Frankly, it was off putting and out of character. I won't get into that any further, however. What I want to address is what seems to be an underlying assumption that drove most of the rest of his post. Namely, he treats things that he considers to be important as terminal values for the government.
 
The most revealing sentence, I think, was this: [If the tax bill works, investment increases and turbo charges the economy, and poor and middle class people get more money] "then the good thing that happens is that poor and middle-class people have more money" (emphasis my own.) With all due respect, Scott, I think that spending money on investment and turbo-charging the economy, are noble goals in and of themselves. Of course, it would be better if they also resulted in the average person improving their economic station. Similarly, I think that on an isolated basis, a straight tax cut to the lower and middle class would be one of the most efficient ways to fulfill the goal "improve the economic station of the lower and middle class" in the short term. However, I think a more effective method of fulfilling that goal would be to take a longer term view and try to address the actual cause of the problem, which is more complicated and unrelated to tax policy.
 
I think that often, criticisms of the government allow perfect to be the enemy of good. If a program only increases spending on investment and turbo charges the economy, but doesn't help lower and middle class people, then it is suddenly an unacceptable option. The U.S. political system serves many interests, and many of those interests are often competing. As long as a particular policy is, on the balance, a net positive, then it should at least be considered a viable option (of course, there are many examples of seemingly net positive policies that are not good ideas for any number of reasons.) Scott seems to be making this sort of argument, while also not acknowledging that there are other perspectives on this issue that have different priorities.
 
TAX BILL 3: DON’T MESS WITH TAXES
 
I'm not going to disagree with his first point. I agree that I don't think the bill as drafted will stimulate growth very much. It doesn't do all that much to eliminate inefficiencies, and it creates quite a few, so it's at best a wash. I think this point is correct.
 
I very strongly disagree with the second point though. In fact, I think the viewpoint that Scott advocates in support of this concept is perhaps the biggest contributor to the mess we have found ourselves in. There's going to be some math in this but I will try to keep it as simple as possible.
 
Let's take the exact same town, with 1000 people, the effective altruist Alice, and the demon-cursed Bob. Let's throw in a few more details. Before Bob was cursed by the demon, everyone in town made $1000 per year, and paid $200 in taxes. The GDP of the town was $1 million per year, with $200,000 going to taxes to pay for various frivolous services that the townsfolk deem necessary to live their frivolous lives (per Scott's opinion.) To make the math easier, let's say that the demon curses Bob to destroy 5x the wealth he pays in taxes. After the curse, there's only $999,000 in GDP, which results in $199,800 in tax revenue. The demon has basically removed Bob from the town, economically speaking. All the contributions he makes are nullified by the effect of the demon's curse.
 
Now Scott gets elected president of the town. As promised, he takes the taxes on Alice down to $0. To make up for the lost revenue, he raises the taxes on everyone else by $0.20. Sure, Bob's curse destroys another $1 from the town's wealth, but that's an easy trade! We just paid $1 of frivolous wealth from frivolous people to accomplish $200 of stuff that matters. I'd do that every day and twice on Sunday.
 
A few thing happen after this however. First, the demon curses ninety nine more people, each also named Bob. The GDP of the town now drops to $900,000, and the effect of the tax is now $100 in lost wealth. That's not good, but the tax cut is still a good idea. $200 is way bigger than $100. In fact, even more good news is that seeing the tax cut inspires another ninety nine people to take up Alice's cause! Scott gleefully cuts their taxes too. We just created $20,000 in real, tangible progress, and all it cost was $10,000 of destroyed wealth.
 
Of course, the non-Alice townsfolk are less happy. They should have taken home $900k last year, $720k after tax. (Remember that there are now 100 Alices) They also should have had $200k dollars to pay for the governmental programs that they find important. After the demon's curse, that $900k decreased to $810k, the $720k decreased to $650k, and the $200k decreased to $180k. To add insult to injury, Scott's tax cut destroyed another $10,000, and raised the taxes on them even further. After Scott's tax cut, they now earn $800k, and take home $620k, but still have the same $180k of government spending. Their take home wages are down almost 20% in one year, and they are flipping mad.
 
Next year, Moloch runs against Scott in the local election. He says "Vote for me, and I will cut your taxes. I will make everyone who votes for Scott pay for it." The vote is split 800 - 200 for mathematical convenience, with all the Alices and Bobs voting for Scott, and everyone else voting for Moloch. In order to fund the tax cut to his favored consituents, Moloch raises the taxes on Alice and Bob to 100%. Alice is now not only unable to donate to her favored cause, but also unable to eat. Meanwhile, since the Bob's face a combined tax burden of $100k, they wipe out half of the GDP of the town through the demon's curse. The townspeople, being unaware that their taxation of Bob is the cause of this sudden decrease in their GDP, turn their hatred outward, blaming outsourcing or the decline of their favored industry for the town's sudden decrease in fortune. Moloch rules the town with an iron fist, and the GDP never recovers.
 
The point of this is that if you can direct money towards a favored constituency, then so can the opposition. And as long as you two continue trading power back and forth, then you will continue to break off pieces of the pie for your ingroup, while hurting everyone bit by bit. The purpose of a tax policy, therefore, not be to decide where we raise the funds from, but rather it should be to raise the appropriate amount of funds in the most efficient manner possible. To invite efficiency losses in the service of raising money from the "right" places is to invite ruin. How we spend the money that we raise can and should be an open and separate question. Unfortunately, these two questions are also frequently conflated. Nonetheless, when we are thinking about taxation, the operative question should be "What is the most effective way of doing this?" We should then set the level of taxation at a level commensurate with the level of spending that we deem necessary, subject to the deficit. "Necessary" spending is a whole different topic that really shouldn't be mixed with taxation, as it is complex enough as it stands.
submitted by azerusa to slatestarcodex [link] [comments]

collapse daily - don't look, just downvote

These are today's headlines. All links are found here:
lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2017/12/12/collapse-daily-19/
Bitcoin Mining on Track to Consume All of the World’s Energy by 2020(www-newsweek-com.cdn.ampproject.org) | If we continue to grow energy demand at current rates, in 15,000 years we'll require the same energy that the sun puts out each year
‘Tsunami of data’ could consume one fifth of global electricity by 2025 - Billions of internet-connected devices could produce 3.5% of global emissions within 10 years and 14% by 2040. (theguardian.com) | By 2025 cars will be responsible for 1.5 gigabytes of data per second
Promising to ‘Make Our Planet Great Again,’ Macron lures 13 U.S. climate scientists to France (washingtonpost.com) | France was the #1 cheerleader of humanitarian bombing of Libya to maintain the Euro and American dollar hegemony
Climate Change Could Take the Air Out of Wind Farms (wired.com) | Wind turbines also shut down when it's too windy, so just imagine all those what will happen to all those offshore wind farms when in the new era of superstorms
Thomas fire creating its own weather, expert says (Los Angeles Daily News) | Shitnado
Bakers, farmers struggle to make any dough on poor wheat crop (Reuters) | For shit headline hides shitty bagel crisis - protein deficient wheat.
Dying Ecosystems (Counterpunch)
To Eliminate Fruit Flies, California Farmers Eye Controversial Genetic Tool MIT | When words fail me, you know it's fucked up
U.S. Agricultural Commodity Overproduction Helps Agribusinesses but Hurts World’s Developing World Farmers and the Environment. Is it Even Legal? (Big Picture Agriculture) | When it comes to big bucks big ag doesn't give a fuck
Air pollution fine particles linked to poor sperm quality, says study (deccanchronicle.com) | That's why I don't breathe
Canada is still a rogue state on climate change - Behind the Numbers (behindthenumbers.ca) | Canadian and US govs are evil, Canucks and Yanks are not
Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia (ehp.niehs.nih.gov) | Nothing fishy about that headline
The Dirty Secret of the Global Plan to Avert Climate Disaster (wired.com) | BECCS requires land the size of India, yet Sciam says soil degradation rates means human agriculture will end in 50 years. To power 30% of the world with algae ponds requires enough land the size of Argentina. We lost 75 million acres in forest just last year. This is all faerie dust, or the sciency version of cocaine addiction
Industry’s policy on new Indian pollution curbs: ignore them (Asia Times)
Global Conflicts to Watch in 2018 (Atlantic) | Warfare = Corporate welfare queens
You can see talks from the American Geophysical Union meeting this week via live streaming video (free, but registration required) (fallmeeting.agu.org) | Paul Beckwith will be reporting from Geek heaven on YouTube
2017 Hurricanes and Aerosols Simulation (youtube.com) | A super excellent video showing how African dust gets washed out of the air by climate change. This has profound ecological implications for the Amazon.
Trump cedes green energy jobs and leadership to China (chicagotribune.com) | China, our new beacon of hope. 80% of all the solar panels in the world are made in Asia. They are shipped worldwide in cargo ships exempt from emissions controls. China is building the world's biggest rail, pipeline and road network in history. They build enough roads to cross the US twice each year. They pour more cement in 3 years than the US ever has in its history. This kinda bullshit makes me sick.
Shareholders have turned up the heat on the world's 100 biggest polluting companies including Australian firms BHP Billiton, Wesfarmers and Rio Tinto, in the first coordinated global effort by investors to force corporate action on climate change. (smh.com.au) | Wait til they find out corporations don't give a fuck about shareholders
Dead coal mines everywhere are being reincarnated as solar farms(qz.com) | The liberal zen buddhist green energy wet dream, everlasting life
Climate Change Has Come for Los Angeles (nymag.com) | Skips over the great unwashed redneck states that urban hipster liberals love to hate
With Climate Change, Tree Die-Offs May Spread in the West (nytimes.com) | Those dead trees are then shipped to Europe as wood pellets where they burn them for "renewable" electricity
The Trump administration is preparing to unveil as soon as this week an expansive offshore oil plan that would open the door to selling new drilling rights in Atlantic waters (bloomberg.com) | What about Mars?
Wet wipes make up 93% of matter causing UK sewer blockages: (theguardian.com) | I worked as a maintenance guy in a trailer park, hence my bullshit qualifications. Here's a special link to a trailer park manager's "shiticisms".
US flood risk 'severely underestimated' (bbc.com)
New Satellite-Based Global Drought Severity Index Unveiled by Researchers (Science Daily) | Merry Xmas
Hotter world than predicted may be here by 2100 (Climate News) | I would say by spring
How Fed Rate Hikes Impact US Debt Slaves (WolfStreet)
Oil Producers Turning to Crypto to Solve Sanctions Problems (Luongo) | Peak BitCoin
Sweden: More Signs The World’s Biggest Housing Bubble Is Cracking (ZH)
Trump Tells NASA to Send Americans to the Moon (AFP) | That's a lot of moon flights
Large-scale, long-term alternative to batteries (Quartz) | Who needs LSD when there's shit like this?
France to impose total ban on mobile phones in schools (Telegraph) | The real apocalypse (the one you actually care about) is coming here soon
A quarter trillion dollars is at risk when bitcoin crashes — and that’s just for starters (Axios)
Peak Bitcoin Media-Mania Yet? (Wolf Ricther) | If the media likes it, it's poison
Taxes on Meat Could Join Carbon and Sugar to Help Limit Emissions (Bloomberg) | That only leaves one-third of our diet tax free, salt.
HSBC draws line under Mexican cartel case after five-years on probation (Reuters) | Another shit headline to mask massive drug laundering. The Brits and Yanks are the number money lauderers in the world
Figures show children worst hit by library cuts (Guardian) | If we are going to destroy their planet, what's the big deal about a library?
submitted by BeezelyBillyBub to collapse [link] [comments]

I failed yet again

Hey guys
I feel awful. Almost suicidal, although I’d never follow trough with it, just feel like I’m at my absolute lowest
To others in this subreddit, I think I may have it a little worse than you, stop gambling NOW or it will continue to snowball into something ridiculous like my situation....
I am addicted to sports gambling and have accrued a mountain of debt as well as a mountain of stress and problems in my personal life. My quality of life in all areas has suffered greatly because of my addiction and my unwillingness to admit to my addiction and quit.
In general, I have an addictive personality and have found throughout life I get very addicted to things quickly. Whether it’s a new type of food I discover or something as typical as drugs- cocaine, marijuana etc.
this addiction has been going on over the past 1-2 years and has cost me so much, financially and in the form of relationships with my loving girlfriend and family. And the little that I still have is about to go out the door as I now have to finally come to terms to everything and admit to them my issues and the massive amounts of cash I’ve blown through.
Losses: -50-60k in personal cash I earned GONE( I had a VERY well paying job and the reason I got into sports gambling was to try to “flip” this money into more) -at least 20-30k in taxes owed to IRS, since I worked for myself..I would just try to win back my losses with money I had separated for the tax man...now tax time comes around and I have nothing to pay the tax man with. I am on an monthly installment plan of 250 a month for now but the lump sum is huge and will likely grown next year when I have to file taxes -13k of credit card debt on my girlfriend of 4 years card...I actually cleared her debt of 10k last year when I was doing well in my Job...as a favor she let me use it for a few expenses and things got out of control fast with my addiction. So I’ve essentially brought back her debt that I did her a favor of paying off for her a year ago. Pretty fcked. - l9k from my father retirement money that was supposed to be “invested” in bitcoin but was actually used to gamble is now gone
Bank account is more or less on zero
sad thing is I did a GA meeting 2-3 months ago and quit for a few weeks. At the time I had all my debt and IRS problems but I hadn’t taken money from my father yet. That happened in the last month and I feel so fucking ashamed. I just wanted to make run up his money to like 100k and surprise him with it. I got so close so many times and would gamble it all away when I was winning big.
Not even sure how to start talking to my girlfriend or my father about this. I’m afraid of the hurt and disappointment I will cause and that they will leave me, especially my girlfriend.
I want to get help and rebuild my life but admitting this and hurting those I Love is killing me.
submitted by so_did_we_ to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Of Wolves and Weasels - Day 86 - The Sweet Spot

Hey all! GoodShibe here!
For those wondering what's going on with our valuation, well, let's just say that things are a bit crazy over at Uncle Bitcoin's right now and that's having a notable effect on pretty much everyone.
Remember all those investors who bought Bitcoin just to be rich? And the Miners who jumped aboard and mined in massive numbers in order to become easy millionaires?
Well, a good chunk of them are fleeing for the hills right now thanks to a couple revelations that are, well, hitting kind of hard.
  1. The US's taxation rules on Cryptocurrency, if I understand them properly, have spooked a whole lot of people. The idea that the IRS has made taxation retroactive, that you have to account for the coins that you had, the price you paid when you got them, and then have to pay taxes on based on whatever the price was when you sold... yeah, that's spooked a whole lot of investors. For Miners, it's even worse because all that mining, well, it's now classified as straight-up income and you're required to claim the coins you mined, at the price they were when you mined them, as income. Essentially: a whole lot of people just realized they owe a whole lot in taxes, are liquidating Bitcoin to pay said taxes and causing a sort of 'run on the bank', which is dropping Bitcoin's price. People are now selling faster than they're buying and... needless to say, that's causing a lot of investors to bug out too.
  2. The China 'ban' idea just won't go away. Bitcoiners have been hurt, repeatedly, by China and it seems that even the threat of China 'banning' Bitcoin has people heading for the door. No one's sure if it will actually happen, but it's contributing to the fire sale on Bitcoin right now.
So, where do we fit into all of this?
Actually, quite well, if we play our cards right.
See, Dogecoin has always been intended - as our Creator stated from the very beginning - for small purchases, for internet tipping, for shows of appreciation. As a coin, we were made inflationary in order to help reinforce this idea. There will be no limit to the amount of Dogecoins in existence - and this will help to keep our 'price' low for all.
We're not an 'investor' coin -- and that sweet spot, those $5-$10 purchases, that's where we rule.
Especially when we get into 'tax land'. See, the Government doesn't care about small purchases like this. We're not laundering money in $5 pizza slices and $10 videogame subscriptions.
If you're an American all you have to do is this: Keep track of how much Dogecoin you bought, at what price. If you sell it at a loss, you can claim that loss as a capital loss. If you sell at a profit, you pay tax on that profit.
It's a bit of legwork, but not that difficult.
Thing is that for a lot of US-based Bitcoin businesses, especially ones that've already spent a lot of Bitcoin getting up and running, it's sort of like the cows are coming home to roost. It's a lot of taxes.
And the US's move is, generally, being seen by the market as a way to try and limit or kill off Cryptos in general. The average person does not want to deal with more taxes, they don't want to be tracking how much comes in and how much goes out at what price. So these taxation moves are generally viewed as the US's push to keep Bitcoin (and altcoins) as niche products.
The general feeling over in Bitcoin-land is that the move is geared to push Bitcoin out as a 'fad', like beanie babies. And, largely, it seems like those plans are working.
For the rest of the world, if you're not Russia, China, the US or Canada then just proceed as normal (though probably good, just for self-edification, to start tracking stuff like this). Canada has already come out and stated that Cryptos are considered Commodities and are taxable, so I'm sure this all comes as no real shock to Canadians.
If we REALLY want to do something good, let's make some software that helps Shibes (and Bitcoiners and...) keep track of their buy-in prices, etc.
I can't remember if the QT wallet has a 'history' feature that tracks all your incoming/outgoing coins (I know for sure it's at least the last 3 or 4 transactions) but that can also help you track your purchases, etc.
The long and short of it breaks down like this:
Your Government wants their cut of the action. For Bitcoin, there's a lot of action that they missed, and now they are saying that they want their cut retroactively.
But for us, doing what we were doing anyway, for small purchases, transfers, etc, Dogecoin continues, pretty much, as business as usual.
We're not exactly buying Tesla Roadsters here.
That said, as an 'investment vehicle', well, things just got a lot more restrictive. You can 'invest' in Dogecoin (or any digital coin) hoping to profit off its rise, but, if you do, you have to pay taxes on your profits. Most don't like that. But, if you want to do business in the US and Canada, those are the new rules. And, yes, you can choose not to follow them, but it will sting if you get caught.
Again, for most of us, the average user, this won't affect us much other than chasing out those who don't care about the community we've built here.
And for Bitcoin, this exodus may lead to a renaissance for them as well - as all the speculators and Libertarians and such tuck tail and run for the door, leaving only the true-believers to pick up the pieces.
But this should surprise no one.
Regulation was always on it's way in - the Wild West eventually got tamed.
Yes, much of the 'wild profits' of the early days are gone - and the 'wild profits' to come will be taxable (technically, those original 'wild profits' are now taxable as well...) - but for those of us who wanted Dogecoin to exist as a currency, to do what it does best, this really isn't much for us to bat an eye at.
Keep tipping, keep mining, keep appreciating one another.
Keep on building the DOGEconomy.
Because the moon is still in full view, my friends.
And it beckons for those who dare.
It's 8:07AM EST and we're at 66.78% of DOGEs found. Our Global Hashrate is on the rise from ~68 to ~73 Gigahashes per second and our Difficulty is bouncing between ~734 and ~1890 -- currently riding very high at ~1890.
As always, I appreciate your support!
GoodShibe
EDIT: In case you missed it, we have a Celebrity AMA coming up, specifically working in a Dogecoin/charity angle. I can't say who it is, but they'll be here hoping to collect Dogecoin donations for a charity called Operation Smile. More to come soon! You can check out the update thread here
EDIT 2: I may be wrong here, but the way it seems to me is:
This may also depend on exactly who's asking, whether the IRS thinks it's property or FinCEN thinks its a currency.
submitted by GoodShibe to dogecoin [link] [comments]

*1/10 - Wednesday Stock Market Movers & News*

Good morning traders of the StockMarket sub! Welcome to Wednesday! Here are your stock movers & news this morning-

(CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE FULL SOURCE!)

Frontrunning: January 10

STOCK FUTURES NOW:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET HEAT MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET HEAT MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($JPM $LEN $KBH $WFC $SCHN $HELE $BLK $AYI $DAL $FCEL $MSM $SVU $PNC $SNX $WDFC $SJR $SHLM $SMPL $EXFO $SAR $LMNR$SLP$PRGS $NTIC $VOXX $INFY)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($LEN $SVU $SNX $MSM $WDFC $EXFO $SLP $VOXX)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

THIS MORNING'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES!)

THIS MORNING'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING DISCUSSIONS:

  • KODK
  • ETH.X
  • TRX.X
  • PTIE
  • DGAZ
  • MU
  • WTW
  • GSUM

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
Eastman Kodak — The company's stock soared 75 percent in the premarket after saying it has used blockchain — the underlying technology for popular cryptocurrencies like bitcoin — to create a digital photography platform called KodakCoin.

STOCK SYMBOL: KODK

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Constellation Brands, Molson Coors — Both beer stocks were initiated with "overweight" ratings at Barclays. Analysts said they expect Constellation Brands will "continue exceeding expectations." They also said they "expect accelerating cash returns to be a material positive" for Molson.

STOCK SYMBOL: STZ

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

STOCK SYMBOL: TAP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Deere — Deere shares were upgraded to "outperform" from "sector perform" at RBC Capital Markets. Analysts also boosted their price target on the stock to $190 per share from $155.

STOCK SYMBOL: DE

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Target — Analysts at Susquehanna upgraded Target to "positive" from "neutral," noting the company's earnings growth is "reaccelerating to a double-digit rate in FY18." They also hiked their price target to $84 a share from $54.

STOCK SYMBOL: TGT

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Lennar — The home builder reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.29 a share, well below the expected $1.48 a share. Lennar shares fell nearly 5 percent in the premarket. The company also posted better-than-expected revenue, however, and said the tax-cut bill passed last month will reduce its effective tax rate to about 25 percent from 34 percent.

STOCK SYMBOL: LEN

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Supervalu — Supervalu shares dropped nearly 12 percent after reporting adjusted quarterly earnings of 61 cents a share. The company also said it expects net losses from continuing operations to range between $20 million and $2 million for 2018.

STOCK SYMBOL: SVU

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
VMWare — The enterprise software company confirmed it laid off a small percentage of its workforce. The move comes two years after cutting around 800 employees.

STOCK SYMBOL: VMW

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Berkshire Hathaway — Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett appointed Gregory Abel and Ajit Jain as vice chairmen. The move by Buffett comes as questions about who will succeed the legendary investor loom. Buffett, 86, also said he would remain in his role.

STOCK SYMBOL: BRK.A

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

FULL DISCLOSURE:

bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. bigbear0083 is an admin at the financial forums Stockaholics.net where this content was originally posted.

DISCUSS!

What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at StockMarket?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Wednesday, January 10th, 2018! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Staying Anonymous in a High Risk Activity (xpost from /r/ShadowWar)

👀
To preface this topic, I must state that I am not advocating any immoral activity. Also please note, that just because something is illegal, does not necessary mean that it must be immoral. Remember that the Civil Rights Act was not passed until 1964 - just over 50 years ago. Just because something is enshrined into law, does not mean that it is moral and just.
That said, there may come a time in your life where you decide that you must do something that is going to piss off someone with the means to hurt you. For the purposes of this Topic, let us pretend you have compromising files that detail illegal activity, and you want to release it onto the internet. The pressing question is, how do you release your content without revealing who you are and putting yourself and/or your loved ones in danger?
Let's do our best to come up with as many countermeasures as we can.
Why Become an Anonymous Whistleblower?
The government and/or your workplace will tell you that there is a Whistleblower program in place, and that you should make use of it if you witness any wrongdoing. You will need to use your own judgement, on whether to use this program, or if you should instead become an internet whistleblower. Every situation is different.
What I CAN say, however, is that it is in the nature of government to seek unlimited power. EVERY government in the world would eventually strip their citizens of all rights and control their every move and thought, IF they thought they could get away with it. Similarly, individuals and corporations (and yes, governments) will risk fines and jail time by doing something illegal, if they think that it is worth the risk of getting caught.
You see examples of this everywhere. One of the easiest-to-find examples is when a car manufacturer doesn't bother to fix a fatal defect because the cost of fixing it is greater than the cost of the lawsuits from the inevitable deaths (link). Even when they DO get caught, the penalty isn't even that bad because the fines are for some odd reason TAX DEDUCTIBLE.
When the government does something illegal, they KNOW they're doing something illegal. They just do it anyway because they can get away with it, and because they hide it well enough. When someone steps forward and says "hey, this isn't right!", the government's reaction is NOT to say "oh, that person is right, we should correct things and be sure to follow the law!" Instead, what they think is "oh no, this guy is going to tell on us, and if word gets out, then it will be a setback in our quest for power! we need to make sure our secret stays hidden! how do we go about doing that...?"
The answer is typically to threaten to ruin the potential whistleblower's life in some way. Maybe they get transferred to another department. Maybe they get fired for being 1 minute late. Maybe the whistleblower made the complaint official so they go for a gag order. Or maybe the problem is big enough that they hack their emails and start a smear and discrediation campaign. Sprinkle a little crack on them. Plant child pornography on their hard drive. Use their SSN and credit cards to ruin them financially. Or maybe they just put a couple bullets in them.
The government doesn't want you to right wrongs. The government just wants power. If you uncover illegal activity, you must determine if reporting the violation through official channels will actually fix the problem, or if you must do your best to raise a public stink about it. This also applies to corporations. Be wary of dealing with HR - they exist to protect the company, not you.
"It's Just Metadata"
When solid evidence of mass survillence was revealed, one of the arguments that the government used to try to downplay it is that they were not actually collecting message contents, but instead only collecting the metadata (sender, reciever, date and time, etc). First off, this is bullshit - they are obviously collecting the message contents too. Second off, METADATA IS FUCKING IMPORTANT. You can put together a pretty clear picture of exactly what is happening, just from metadata. Metadata is basically a smoking gun to the message or file contents.
The scary thing is, most tech-savy people - myself included - are not able to guarantee that they can clean ALL of the metadata from a file. And not only is metadata stored on the operating system level (on the "outside" of files), but the program that created the file in the first place probably has its own metadata INSIDE the file. And there's no way you can trust "metadata-cleaner-v0.6.exe" (now with the Ask toolbar!) to keep you out of jail.
You must assume that the original files that you copy and intend to leak, are littered with metadata that very very clearly identifies you as the leaker.
To combat this, there are several steps you can take.
  1. DO NOT leak the original untouched files. Certainly keep a copy of them, but original files might have your digital fingerprints all over it, and will put you at risk. Instead, copy or transcribe the contents, and place it into a new file, and be sure to do it on a computer that cannot be traced back to you or any of your accounts.
  2. Modify the contents of the file. When pasting text, you should strongly consider pasting the contents format-free (control-shift-v) (or use Notepad as an intermediary). Depending on how paranoid you are about this, also consider converting everything to upper-case or lower-case. If images are involved, resize them slightly. Also, especially if the image is a .jpg, save with a slightly reduced quality to introduce noise or to destroy "invisible" markers that the human eye cannot detect. Also be aware that documents might have deliberate variations, depending on the person who accessed them. This could be hidden in typos, punctuation, capitalization, even full words or sentences. The document you plan on leaking might actually be trapped.
  3. You must also consider who had access to the file? Are you the only one? Because if you are, then taking every precaution possible will not help you. Is it a limited group of people? You are going to be placed under a microscope. The more people that "could have" done it, the better. You need to be able to hide in a crowd of suspects - the larger the pool of suspicion, the better.
This is in no way a comprehensive list. The reality is, the offending organization has as many tools at their disposal as they can imagine. You must try to determine the level of risk yourself, and what the most likely countermeasures would be, and adjust your strategy to circumvent them. Be smart, and careful, and paranoid. And honestly, you should seriously consider using a journalist instead of doing this yourself.
There is also one more matter to be careful of... the actual file contents itself. You have to read it, and you have to determine if any innocent person would be put in danger if you leak the information. And then you must determine if leaking the document is still worth it.
Doing the Deed
There are a number of precautions that you can take when you need to remain anonymous for an online activity. Some of these are pretty basic. Others of these are more extreme. It is up to you to determine which measures are appropriate, to protect yourself from the risks you are about to take.
  1. Do not use any computer that is associated with you or anyone else you know. You should buy a laptop off of Craigslist. Do not use your real phone number, or real email address, or your real name, etc. When arranging to buy this laptop, you should ideally not be using your own computer or internet connection to communicate with the seller. Using your laptop with a Tails linux live CD in a coffee shop is typically secure enough though, for this particular activity. Buy the laptop using cash. Try to not give the seller any reason to remember you.
  2. Remove the hard drive from your newly acquired laptop. Only boot up on a Tails live cd. Read up on spoofing your MAC address. Never switch on the laptop at home, or use your home internet connection. Never connect to any of your personal online accounts using this laptop. Never use this laptop to browse the internet - your browsing behaviors could get the laptop/connection "fingerprinted" back to you. This is a "dark" laptop, and you should take every measure to keep it that way.
  3. I do not know if it is even possible to aonymously buy a burner phone in the United States. But if you absolutely need one, try to do it as anonymously as possible, using all of the other tips listed here, and then some. Use cash, avoid cameras, avoid local shops,
  4. Do all of your preparations offline. Only connect to the internet for the amount of time you need to perform your activity, and no longer. Every second you spend online increases your exposure and threat. This is very similar to the concept of military radios that transmit in encrypted bursts, to help prevent enemy interception and triangulation.
  5. Only use public hotspots, when you connect to the internet. And assume that every time you hop online, someone puts a pin in a map where you are. This means, do not use hotspots near your home. Do not use the same hotspot twice.
  6. Use TOR. It's not perfect, and I have my suspicious about government infiltration of the network. But it's FAR better than nothing. In addition, you should also use a VPN if you can. This is far more difficult though, since VPNs are generally not free. Check /VPN, for assistance in researching this topic though, I think there might be a few, albiet with limited bandwidth. If you need to buy a VPN, use bitcoin (/bitcoin), instead of your credit card. Reasons should be obvious enough.
  7. Avoid cameras, CCTV, and traffic cameras. This is especially difficult this day in age, but try to make an effort to anyway, without appearing suspicious. Maybe call off your upload / activity, if there were too many cameras. If your adversary is strong enough, you must assume that they will pinpoint the location you used, and long after you're gone, they might arrive on the scene to confiscate security footage from the surrounding area.
  8. Consider anti-facial-recognition makeup and clothing. Note, this only fools facial recognition software, and should only be used if circumstances warrant (aka, they already know who you are, and are looking for you). This type of behavior will INSTANTLY cause everyone around you to pay attention to you. A realistic silicon mask and makeup is probably a superior alternative, if you have access to that sort of thing, to make an old-fashioned disguise, but takes a bit more effort.
  9. In extreme cases, consider performing a surreptitious upload. For example, maybe you can leave your laptop in a bag, and have it automatically connect to a coffee shop's WiFi and perform a task and then disconnect, while you pretend to work on a paper, or chat up the cute girl with the glasses. If you are this worried though, you might be better off not even entering the building with the hotspot in the first place. If you need to put even more distance between you and your internet access, consider using a directional WiFi antenna. Naturally, you might want to build it yourself, as opposed to buying one on Amazon.
As you can see, possible methods for avoiding detection start to become increasingly ridiculous. Every measure has a countermeasure. You must determine the likely measures that will be used to find you, and focus on countering those. If you have the spare time, then take it a few steps further. But at some point, a budget for time, alabi windows, and resources avaialble to perform countermeasures start to become stretched thin.
Hitting The Fan
Despite being more careful than you thought humanly possible, there is always the possibility that will get caught. Maybe you leave your fingerprint on a spoon. Maybe a random camera catches your face. Maybe you brag about it on Facebook. Maybe your moment of doing the right thing was witnessed by a 192 megapixel camera with a wide angle lense, mounted on the bottom of a Cessna and flown in lazy circles around the city at an altitude of 8000 feet while recording everything within 30 miles, allowing law enforcement to rewind the footage to locate you at the scene, and then fast forward while tracking your movements to find out where you live.
I guess that last one was oddly specific... (link)
The point is, you need a plan for when things go south. Edward Snowden's plan was to fly to a country that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the United States. Most of us aren't going to need that extreme of a getaway plan, but picking a country you would flee to in such a hypothetical sitaution is amusing by itself. (Relavant Wikipedia Article)
Depending on the severity of your actions, it might be wise to leave the country BEFORE you publish your dirt. Make sure your passport is up-to-date, withdraw as much cash as you can comfortably / legally travel with, and transfer your remaining assets to a safe international bank. I'm not an expert on international finance, if you have enough assets you would likely want to speak to a lawyer to make sure your funds don't get frozen or confiscated.
For the rest of us who are not on the top of the international most wanted list, you may want to pre-plan a legal defense.
Or you could just take up a hobby. I hear handcuffing yourself in a duffel bag in your bath tub and padlocking it from the outside so you can practice escaping is a pretty fun and safe solo activity. (link)
submitted by primo_pastafarian to conspiracy [link] [comments]

"A Sea Of Red": Global Stocks Plunge With Tech Shares In Freefall

While there was some nuance in yesterday's pre-open trading, with Asia at least putting up a valiant defense to what would soon become another US rout, this morning the market theme is far simpler: a global sea of red.

Stocks fell across the globe as worries over softening demand for the iPhone prompted a tech stock selloff across the world, while the arrest of car boss Carlos Ghosn pulled Nissan and Renault sharply lower. Even China's recent rally fizzled and the Shanghai composite closed down 2.1% near session lows, signalling that the global slump led by tech shares would deepen Tuesday, adding a new layer of pessimism to markets already anxious over trade. Treasuries advanced and the dollar edged higher.
S&P 500 futures traded near session lows, down 0.6% and tracking a fall in European and Asian shares after renewed weakness in the tech sector pushed Nasdaq futures sharply lower for a second day after Monday's 3% plunge and crippled any hopes for dip buying. News around Apple triggered the latest bout of stock market selling, after the Wall Street Journal reported the consumer tech giant is cutting production for its new iPhones.
Europe's Stoxx 600 Index dropped a fifth day as its technology sector fell 1.3% to the lowest level since February 2017, taking the decline from mid-June peak to 21% and entering a bear market. Not surprisingly, the tech sector was the worst performer on the European benchmark on Tuesday, following Apple’s decline to near bear-market territory and U.S. tech stocks plunge during recent sell-off. The selloff was compounded by an auto sector drop led by Nissan and Renault after Ghosn, chairman of both carmakers, was arrested in Japan for alleged financial misconduct. The European auto sector was not far behind, dropping 1.6 percent, and the broad European STOXX 600 index was down 0.9 percent to a four-week low.
“Most of Europe had a red session yesterday and that has been compounded by the news on Apple and tech stocks overnight, The overall climate is risk off,” said Investec economist Philip Shaw. “Beyond stocks, the Italian bonds spread (over German bonds) is at its widest in about a month now, and Brexit continues to rumble on - uncertainty is very much hurting risk sentiment,” he added.
Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.2 percent, with Samsung Electronics falling 2 percent. In Japan, Sony Corp shed 3.1 percent. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 1.1 percent, with shares of Nissan Motor Co tumbling more than 5% after Ghosn’s arrest and on news he will be fired from the board this week.
Meanwhile, as noted yesterday, the CDS index of US investment grade issuers blew out to the widest level since the Trump election, signaling renewed nerves about the asset class.

Exactly two months after the S&P hit all time highs, stocks have been caught in a vicious decline and continue to struggle for support as some of the technology companies that helped drive the S&P 500 to a record high earlier this year tumbled amid a slowdown in consumer sales and fears over regulation, many of them entering a bear market.
At the same time, a more gloomy macro outlook is emerging, with Goldman chief equity strategist David kostin overnight recommending investors hold more cash even as it reiterated its base case of S&P 3000 in 2019.

Ray Dalio disagreed, and said that investors should expect low returns for a long time after enjoying years of low interest rates from central-bank stimulus.
“The easy days of long, global bull markets where you can invest in a tracker for five basis points -- I say this as an active fund manager -- and watch the thing go up, I think those days are gone,” Gerry Grimstone, chairman of Barclays Bank PLC and Standard Life Aberdeen PLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “It’s going to be a move back to value investing, and back to the Warren Buffett-style of investment.”
In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May is reportedly drawing up secret plans to drop the Irish border backstop and win support from angry Brexiteers, while reports added PM May has received agreement from the EU to drop the backstop plan if both sides can agree on alternative arrangements to keep the border open. Meanwhile, Brexiteers reportedly still lack the sufficient number of signatures required to trigger a no-confidence vote against UK PM May, the FT reported. In related news, Brexit rebels reportedly admitted attempts to oust PM May has stalled as Eurosceptic MPs turned on each other. The Telegraph also reported that the confidence vote now appears to be on hold until after Parliament votes in December on Mrs May's Brexit deal.
Sky News reported that the UK government are to publish new analysis before the MPs’ meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement comparing the “costs and benefits” of Brexit. The impact of three scenarios will be measured; no Brexit, no deal, and leaving with the government's draft deal and a free trade agreement.
In rates, Treasuries rose, driving the 10-year yield down to its lowest level since late September, ahead of Thanksgiving Thursday. Italian government bond yields jumped to one-month high on Tuesday and Italian banking stocks dropped to a two-year low, hurt by risk aversion and concerns over the Italian budget. Euro zone money markets no longer fully price in even a 10 bps rate rise from the European Central Bank in 2019, indicating growing investor concern about the economic outlook in the currency bloc.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index whipsawed in early London trading even as it stayed near a more than one-week low on concern cooling global growth will slow the pace of Fed rate hikes, keeping Treasury yields under pressure. At the same time, the pound stabilized as Theresa May appealed to business leaders to help deliver her Brexit deal, and evidence mounted that a plot to oust her as U.K. Prime Minister is faltering.
The euro slid as Italian bonds dropped, pushing the yield spread to Germany to the widest in a month; the currency had opened the London session higher, supported by corporate buying in EUGBP. The yen rallied to a month-to-date high as Asian stocks followed a U.S. equity slide while the New Zealand dollar got a boost from a jump in milk production; the Aussie was on the back foot even after the RBA said Australia’s unemployment rate could fall further in the near term. India’s rupee rallied a sixth day after the central bank signaled a compromise with the government in their dispute over reserves.
Bitcoin extended its drop below $4,500 for the first time since October 2017.
WTI crude oil futures hovered around $57 a barrel after oil prices lost steam as fears about slower global demand and a surge in U.S. production outweighed expected supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Brent crude slipped 0.9 percent to $66.21 per barrel.
In other overnight news, BoJ Governor Kuroda said there is currently no need to ease further, while he added that there was a need for bold monetary policy in 2013 and now we need to persistently continue with policy. Furthermore, Kuroda suggested that the chance of reaching the 2% inflation target during FY2020 is low. Japanese PM Abe says the next initial budget is to have measures to address sales tax.
India's Finance Ministry sources expect that the RBI will stand pat on rates at its meeting next month.
RBA Governor Lowe states that steady policy is to be maintained for 'a while yet' and it is likely that rates will increase at some point if the economy progresses as expected.
Expected data include housing starts and building permits. Best Buy, Campbell Soup, Lowe’s, Medtronic, Target, TJX, and Gap are among companies reporting earnings.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
Asian stock markets were lower across the board as the risk averse tone rolled over from Wall St, where the tech sector led the sell-off as Apple shares dropped nearly 4% on reports it had reduced production orders and with all FAANG stocks now in bear market territory. As such, the tech sector underperformed in the ASX 200 (-0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) was also pressured with Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan among the worst hit after their Chairman Ghosn was arrested on financial misconduct allegations. Shanghai Comp. (-2.1%) and Hang Seng (-2.0%) were heavily pressured after the PBoC continued to snub liquidity operations and as China’s blue-chip tech names conformed to the global rout in the sector, while JD.com earnings added to the glum as China’s 2nd largest e-commerce firm posted its weakest revenue growth since turning public. Finally, 10yr JGBs were weaker amid profit taking after futures recently hit their highest in around a year and following mixed results at today’s 20yr auction.
Top Asian News - BlackRock Doesn’t Expect Significant Growth Slowdown in China - China Stocks Lead Global Losses as Tech Rout Hits Fragile Market - Stock Traders in Asia Keep Finding New Reasons to Hit ’Sell’ - World’s Largest Ikea to Open in Manila as Company Bets on Asia
Major European indices are largely in the red, with the SMI outperforming (+0.1%) which is being bolstered by Novartis (+1.0%) following their announcement of a joint digital treatment with Pear Therapeutics for substance abuse disorder. The DAX (-0.7%) is lagging its peers, weighed on by Wirecard (-5.0%) following a disappointing change to guidance forecasting as well as weak sentiment across IT names after the FAANG stocks entered bear market territory on Wall St. In particular, the Stoxx 600 Technology sector (-1.9%), dropped to its lowest level since Feb 2017. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank (-2.5%) are in the red due to reports that the Co processed payments for Danske Bank in Estonia.
Top European News
In FX, the DXY index remains technically prone to further downside pressure having closed below another Fib support level yesterday and testing the next bearish chart area around 96.050-10 ahead of 96.000 even. However, a more concerted bout of risk-off trade/positioning saved the DXY and broad Dollar from steeper declines as the tech-induced sell-off in stocks intensified, and jitters over Brexit alongside the Italian budget returned to the fore.
NZD/AUD - The Kiwi is bucking the overall trend and outperforming in contrast to this time on Monday, with Nzd/Usd rebounding firmly to 0.6850+ levels and Aud/Nzd retreating through 1.0650 to just south of 1.0600 following overnight data showing a hefty 6.5% y/y rise in NZ milk collections for October. Conversely, the Aud/Usd has slipped back under 0.7300 again, and close to 0.7250 in wake of RBA minutes underscoring no rush to hike rates and subsequent affirmation of wait-and-see guidance from Governor Lowe. In fact, he asserts that the jobless rate could decline to 4.5% vs 5% at present without inducing wage inflation, while also underlining concerns about the supply of credit.
JPY/CHF - Both benefiting from their more intrinsic allure during periods of pronounced risk aversion and investor angst, as Usd/Jpy probes a bit deeper below 112.50 and a key Fib at 112.46 that could be pivotal on a closing basis with potential to expose daily chart support circa 112.16 ahead of 112.00. Meanwhile, the Franc has inched closer to 0.9900 and over 1.1350 vs the Eur that remains burdened with the aforementioned Italian fiscal concerns.
GBP/EUR - Almost a case of déjà vu for Sterling and the single currency as early attempts to the upside vs the Greenback saw Cable and EuUsd revisit recent peaks around 1.2880 and 1.1470 respectively, but a combination of chart resistance and bearish fundamentals forced both back down to circa 1.2825 and 1.1425. In terms of precise technical/psychological levels, 1.2897 and 1.1445 represent Fib retracements, ahead of 1.2900 and 1.1500, while the Pound has remained relatively unchanged and unresponsive to largely on the fence pending Brexit rhetoric from the BoE in testimony to the TSC on November’s QIR.
In commodities, gold has stayed within a USD 5/oz range and traded relatively flat throughout the session moving with the steady dollar ahead of US Thanksgiving. Similarly, copper traded lacklustre breaking a 5-day rally because of a subdued risk sentiment stemming from ongoing US-China trade tensions; with Shanghai rebar adversely affected from these factors. Brent (-0.1%) and WTI (+0.2%) are following a relatively quiet overnight session, while recent upticks in the complex resulted in WTI reclaiming the USD 57/bbl and Brent edging closer to USD 67/bbl. This follows comments from IEA Chief Birol that Iranian oil exports declined by almost 1mln BPD from summer peaks. Looking ahead, traders will be keeping the weekly API crude inventory data which is expected to print a build of 8.79mln barrels.
On today's light data calendar, in the US, there should be some interest in the October housing starts and building permits data, especially following Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments acknowledging a slowdown in the housing market and yesterday’s homebuilder data. Away from that, the BoE’s Carney is due to appear before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee to discuss the Inflation Report, while the ECB’s Nouy and Bundesbank’s Weidmann are both scheduled to speak at separate events.
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
With the sell-off of the last 24 hours we have now traded through the last of our YE 2018 top level credit spread forecasts as US HY widened 6bps to +424bps (YE 2018 forecast was 420). We still think US HY is the most expensive part of the EUR & US credit universe but as discussed above, last night we’ve become more optimistic on all credit in the near-term after what has been the worst week of the year. Credit massively under-performed equities last week but equities caught up on the downside yesterday. The sell-off was underpinned by the FANG names selling off, an accounting scandal emerging at Nissan, oil swinging around and the US housing market spooked by weak data.
Just on the market moves first, the NASDAQ and NYFANG indexes slumped -3.03% and -4.28% yesterday, registering their fourth and third worst days of the year, respectively. Facebook and Apple fell -5.72% and -3.96% respectively, as the sector remains pressured amid a slew of negative PR and the spectre of stricter government regulation. Over the weekend, Apple CEO Tim Cook said in an interview that “the free market is not working” and that new regulation is “inevitable”. This negatively impacted highly-valued social media companies. Twitter and Snapchat traded down -5.02% and -6.78% respectively. The tech sector was further pressured after the WSJ reported that Apple had cut production orders in recent weeks for the new model iPhones, with chipmakers broadly trading lower and Philadelphia semiconductor index shedding -3.86%. The S&P 500 and DOW also slumped -1.66% and -1.56% respectively while in Europe the STOXX 600 turned an early gain of +0.71% into a loss of -0.73%. In credit, cash markets were 2bps and 11bps wider for Euro IG and HY and 2bps and 6bps in the US. CDX IG and HY were, however, 3bps and 11bps wider, respectively. Elsewhere, WTI oil first tested breaking through $55/bbl yesterday, after Russia stopped short of committing to supply cuts, before recovering to close +0.52% at $56.76.
Bond markets were relatively quiet, with Treasuries and Bunds ending -0.4bps and +0.6bps, respectively, albeit masking bigger intraday moves. BTP yields rose +10.6bps to 3.597%, within 10 basis points of their recent closing peak, as rhetoric between Italian officials and their European peers continued to intensify. Finance Ministers from Austria and the Netherlands separately spoke publicly about their concerns, and expressed their hope that the European Commission will loyally enforce the fiscal rules. Italian Finance Minister Tria tried to calm conditions by framing the disagreement as relatively minor, though he also accused the Commission of being biased against expansionary policies, which he argued are needed to avert a macro slowdown.
Back to credit, as we highlighted yesterday, the recent weakness in the asset class has become a talking point for broader markets and while our view is now that value is starting to emerge, there are an increasing number of idiosyncratic stories plaguing the market. There were a couple more examples yesterday with the aforementioned story about Nissan removing its chairman after being arrested for violations of financial law. This caused Renault’s CDS to widen +25.0bps (equity down -8.43%), while Vallourec bonds dropped 15pts after falling 11pts on Friday as concerns mount about the company’s rising leverage in the wake of recent results. Like we’ve see in equity markets, it does feel like credits are now getting punished with sharp moves in the wake of negative headlines Certainly something to watch, but as we said above, credit is now much more attractively priced than it has been for some time.
From steel tubing to Downing Street, where we’ve actually had a rare temporary lull for Brexit headlines over the last 24 hours, although behind the scenes it does look we’re getting closer to the threshold for a confidence vote in PM May with the Times yesterday reporting that “senior Brexiteers” had told reporters that they had “firm pledges” from over 50 MPs to submit letters. As a reminder, 48 are needed to trigger the process. Looking further out, yesterday DB’s Oliver Harvey published a report arguing that there is still a path towards an orderly Brexit based on the existing Withdrawal Agreement should May survive a confidence vote. This path is provided by the political declaration on the future economic relationship. The latter has yet to be negotiated, and as the EU27 and UK recognise in the joint statement, the existing temporary customs arrangement (TCA) already provides a basis for a future economic relationship. Oli argues that the UK should push for the political declaration on the future relationship to explicitly commit the UK to a form of Brexit that might be described as “Norway plus.” The temporary customs arrangement would become permanent, but under the governance framework of UK membership of the EEA and EFT. The UK should tie the political declaration on the future relationship to the good faith clause in the existing Withdrawal Agreement, meaning that if negotiations were not pursued on these lines after the transition period had begun, the UK could withhold payments from the EU27. This would help to allay concerns from across the political divide that the UK would be “trapped” in a sub optimal customs union with the EU27.
Meanwhile, to complicate matters, Bloomberg has reported that the EU is mulling over issuing a series of separate statements on Brexit on Sunday, in addition to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration. This comes after pressure from some EU countries not to appease any additional UK demands. Elsewhere, the SUN has reported that the PM May has drawn up a secret plan to scrap the Irish backstop arrangement in an attempt to win over angry Tory Brexiteers after a meeting with them yesterday. However, if a mutually agreeable solution couldn’t be found over the last couple of years, it seems tough to imagine one was finally found yesterday afternoon. We’ll see.
Further adding to the complexity of where Brexit heads, last night the DUP abstained on the UK finance bill, which implements the budget. This stops short of their prior threat to actively vote against the legislation, but is still a surprise and signals that further political turbulence between PM May and the DUP is likely. The bill only just scraped through. Sterling finished +0.14% yesterday and this morning is trading flattish (+0.02%) in early trade.
Sentiment more broadly in Asia is following Wall Street’s lead with almost all markets trading in a sea of red. The Nikkei (-1.25%, with Nissan Motors down as much as -5.41% and Mitsubishi Motors -6.71%), Hang Seng (-1.84%), Shanghai Comp (-1.63%) and Kospi (-0.96%) are all down along with most other markets. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.29%) are extending losses as we type.
Back to yesterday, where as we mentioned at the top, weak US homebuilder sentiment survey data played its part in the moves for markets. The November NAHB housing market index tumbled to 60 from 68 in October after expectations had been for just a 1pt drop. That’s the lowest reading since August 2016 and biggest one-month drop since February 2014. The details weren’t much better and falls into line with the expectation of a softer outlook for housing. As you’ll see in the day ahead we’ve got more housing data in the US today so worth keeping an eye on even if the October data for starts could be distorted by Hurricane Michael.
As far as the day ahead is concerned, we’re fairly light on data today with Q3 employment stats in France, October PPI in Germany and November CBI total orders data in the UK the only releases of note. In the US, there should be some interest in the October housing starts and building permits data, especially following Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments acknowledging a slowdown in the housing market and yesterday’s homebuilder data. Away from that, the BoE’s Carney is due to appear before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee to discuss the Inflation Report, while the ECB’s Nouy and Bundesbank’s Weidmann are both scheduled to speak at separate events.
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